Burnley vs West Ham United Odds
| Burnley Odds | +230 |
| West Ham Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -105 / -118 |
Vincent Kompany’s men will be hosting David Moyes’ West Ham United at Turf Moor. Burnley will be desperate to pick up points and hopefully gain some momentum. West Ham will be looking to keep climbing the table in their chase for a European spot.
Burnley currently sit rock bottom of the Premier League with just four points and a -21 goal difference after their first 12 matches. They have lost six straight matches in all competitions and if Kompany does not start getting results soon then he could see himself sacked before he knows it.
West Ham have gotten off to a much less stressful start to this season as opposed to last. The Hammers are currently sitting ninth in the league and are fresh off a 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest.
Let’s get into how I see Burnley vs West Ham playing out this weekend in this clash of claret and blue.
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Burnley
Burnley’s return to the league has been a disaster. They only have four points from their first 12 matches and have conceded 30 goals, the second-highest in the league, only lower than Sheffield United. They have also only found the back of the net nine times so far.
Kompany has his own brand of football, which he has learned throughout the years from primarily Pep Guardiola. The issue with this type of style is that Burnley do not have anywhere near the talent that Manchester City do.
If you look at Burnley’s play style, they have the least number of direct attacks in the league with just seven. This normally correlates with teams dominating possession, but Burnley are averaging just over 50% of possession in their 15 matches in all competitions so far. If you can’t control the pace of the match with possession and you can’t break quick on the counter, it is going to be very difficult to create any sort of big chances at all.
When they are out of possession, they try to press their opponent. But when you just do not have the personnel that are able to play this way, it allows for teams to pass through the press and create big chances. That explains the 22 xGA in the league.
Kompany is by no means a bad manager. He has his way of playing that would suit a squad with the talent of City or Chelsea, but this is Burnley. There is a reason that Sean Dyche’s Burnley were so hard to play against because he had them organized and he knew that he didn’t have talented enough players to play like Manchester City.
West Ham
West Ham have looked promising at times this year, especially going forward. They have a higher xG number than Manchester United and are already halfway to equaling their goal total in the league last season. The reason for concern for this side has been their defensive numbers.
They have conceded 22 goals on 22.2 xGA, a higher xGA than the likes of Burnley, Fulham and Wolves. A manager with the experience of David Moyes typically has an organized side that will be hard to break down. But this season has been anything but that for the Hammers. They have conceded the fourth-most goals in the league up to this point, only above Sheffield United, Bournemouth and Burnley.
They like to play a low-block and are more comfortable in a match when they do not have possession. They love to play on the counterattack, which is why West Ham have the highest direct speed attacks in the league. They do not press high, instead they let teams make a mistake and punish them for it.
They have also put together the third-highest xG on set pieces, while Burnley have conceded five goals on set pieces already this season. This could be a plan of attack for Moyes, especially with the likes of Zouma, Soucek, Alvarez and Ward-Prowse.
Burnley vs West Ham
Prediction
As long as Kompany continues to set his Burnley side up in a possession-based game plan, I cannot bet on them to get any sort of result. Especially against an experienced manager in David Moyes, Kompany will be playing directly into the hands of West Ham.
Moyes likes to sit back and counter, and that is where Burnley have been most vulnerable this year. Burnley have struggled playing through low blocks this year, this is the type of defensive style that Moyes plays.
Everything is telling me that West Ham are the play here, so that is what I will be doing. The only real cause for concern is that Bowen may be sidelined for this one with injury, but even so I believe the Hammers will win this one comfortably.
I will be taking West Ham at +100 via DraftKings.
