Chelsea and Brighton will both look to keep building on bright starts under new managers when they meet on Saturday at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea have taken 10 points from their last four league games under Enzo Maresca after opening with a 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City that was closer than the score suggested.
In some ways Brighton have been even better in an unbeaten start under Fabian Hurzeler, though with three draws the Seagulls sit a point behind the fifth-placed Blues.
Chelsea won both league meetings between the sides last year by a single goal, with a total of eight goals scored between the two contests.
Chelsea vs. Brighton Prediction
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 3.5 +125o / -160u | -135 |
| Brighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 3.5 +125o / -160u | +330 |
- Chelsea vs. Brighton moneyline odds: Chelsea -135, Brighton +330, Draw +320
- Chelsea vs. Brighton over/under: 3.5 goals (over +125, under -160)
- Chelsea vs. Brighton pick: Same-game parlay, Brighton or draw and both teams to score
I am backing the same-game parlay on Brighton or draw and both teams to score in Brighton vs. Chelsea.
Chelsea Preview
While there was a genuine sense previous manager Mauricio Pochettino made progress in one season at Chelsea, what Maresca seems to have added during his early tenure is a sense of defensive solidity.
The Blues have kept clean sheets in their last two league games, have let in only five goals total and have permitted opponents only 5.8 expected goals in terms of chances.
That's considerably ahead of the 1.66 goals and 1.53 xG per match Chelsea's defense yielded last season. And it's even fractionally better than their defensive form in their six-match unbeaten run to close the campaign.
Going forward, Chelsea continue to be heavily reliant on Cole Palmer, who scored his second league goal in last weekend's 3-0 triumph at West Ham. And perhaps his team-leading four assists are proving his ability to adapt to increased attention from opposing defenses.
Brighton Preview
If you didn't expect Brighton to be back competing closer toward the top of the league table this season, you probably should have.
A look at last year's form sheet made it fairly clear that the Seagulls' 2023-2024 league campaign suffered mainly from the extra exertion of European football, a lengthy injury list and a combination between the two.
And even though manager Roberto De Zerbi moved on to Marseilles, his immediate success as Graham Potter successor spoke well to the club's ability to make the right next managerial hire.
That appears to be the case with Hurzeler, whose new team has taken three points at home off Manchester United and one away at Arsenal — albeit after a significant refereeing decision in their favor.
If there's a place the Seagulls have struggled so far, it may be in the same area that at times tripped up De Zerbi's sides — games where the Seagulls were favored against an opponent that was content to make the game difficult. That describes the last two league matches, draws against Ipswich and Nottingham Forest in which Brighton had an average of 69% possession.
Chelsea vs. Brighton Prediction
These teams have identical xG numbers, which would suggest at first glance that the line is tilted too heavily toward Chelsea, even factoring for home field advantage.
It's not quite that simple though, since Brighton have a big lurking variable in the form the unusual circumstances of their 1-1 draw at Arsenal. But Chelsea's better results — if not their better performances — have come as the away side, so there's probably some value on the Seagulls.
To get a better price on that value, I'm parlaying a double-chance wager on Brighton or the draw with a yes bet on both teams to score, improving my odds to +185 and an implied 35.1% probability. Despite the unbeaten start, the only sides Brighton have held scoreless so far are Everton, Ipswich Town and Crawley Town.
Chelsea — obviously — are far more threatening, and if the Seagulls take a point or more, it's very likely to be despite a goal for the home side.
Pick: Brighton or draw and yes – both teams to score (+185 via Fanatics)
