Chelsea will be hosting Newcastle in the early slot on Premier League Sunday. With top four implications on the line for Chelsea, three points will definitely be in their sights as Chelsea open as the odds on favorite to win this match.
Newcastle will look to right the ship and secure a result on the road, only managing to win one game in their previous match, which came over a month ago against Wolves.
Let’s get into my preview for Chelsea vs. Newcastle, featuring my Chelsea vs. Newcastle prediction.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -138 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -138 |
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +300 |
- Chelsea vs. Newcastle moneyline odds: Chelsea -138, Newcastle +300, Draw +333
- Chelsea vs. Newcastle over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Chelsea vs. Newcastle pick: Over 3.5
I am backing the over 3.5 in Newcastle vs. Chelsea.
Chelsea Preview
The team with seemingly the biggest dressing room in the entire league, Chelsea, currently find themselves in sixth place in the table. On their journey to finding a true playing identity, they certainly have learned that they can score goals. Cole Palmer leads the team in scoring with six goals, tied for the second-most in the league, and right behind him is Nicolas Jackson with five, tied for third-most in the league.
Undoubtedly their most exceptional player is Palmer. Both a scoring threat and a creator of plenty of scoring chances, he’s really the catalyst that gives Chelsea an extra bite to their dynamic attack. He’s also the only player this season to record a hat-trick of goals and a hat-trick of assists. Defensively, Chelsea have been fairly solid, but they have only managed to keep one clean sheet this season. Against a team like Newcastle, with scoring threats in Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes off the bench, Chelsea might have to lean on their attack to keep them in this match.
Coupled with their defensive inconsistencies, their discipline is also a question mark. Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana are tied for a league-leading five yellow cards, both of whom make up half of the usual back-line for Chelsea. Newcastle thrive off of set pieces, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from set pieces last season makes them a real threat to capitalize off of Chelsea’s mistakes. As Fofana will likely get the start, this aspect of the game is definitely something to consider.
Newcastle Preview
Currently sitting in ninth place in the table, this hasn’t exactly been an ideal start to the season for the Magpies. Winless in their last four games, with two of those four being losses, a change is really necessary for Eddie Howe and his team. On paper, Newcastle have one of the best lineups in the league, but once you take a glance at who they have on defense, it might start to make sense as to why this team keeps letting in goals.
Kieran Trippier is the highest-profile defender on the team, but his role in this new season has been a bit up in the air. With rising star Tino Livramento getting more starts, it’s becoming clear that Trippier’s key role in the team is diminishing. Newcastle are also without Sven Botman due to injury. He was their best defender from the previous season. His absence has definitely been noticeable with Dan Burn filling in for him this season. Against a quick and technical attack like Chelsea, this Newcastle defense will definitely be tested, as Chelsea have shown that they can break down almost every defense they’ve played against.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle Prediction
When looking at the -130 price on Chelsea at home, I’m a bit worried to play them as a favorite. They have proven to be profitable in matches where they are the favorite, but against a team like Newcastle, this price is not very appealing.
On the flip-side, Newcastle at +330 does seem intriguing, however their lack of seeing out matches and scoring first, especially on the road, discourages me from taking a chance on them as an underdog. One line that does intrigue me is over 3.5 at just around even money. With the man-to-man style of defense Chelsea like to play, I think it sets up well for Newcastle’s midfield of Guimaraes, Tonali and Joelinton, allowing them to play direct and pick Chelsea apart.
Also, if Newcastle continue to si back on defense, it’s likely that Chelsea will be able to overload them with Palmer finding space to create opportunities for either himself or the other three attacking options in front of him.
