Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Predictions
| Crystal Palace Odds | -154 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -125 |
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa — a.k.a the Christian Benteke derby — is one of the most "Premier League" Premier League games out there.
For a while, it was about as quintessentially mid-table of a matchup that could be thought up, but that might no longer be the case, as both clubs are in the ascendancy. Unai Emery took Villa from 15th to seventh last season and now has confirmed a fourth-place finish in his first full season in Birmingham. Meanwhile, in south London, Oliver Glasner has won six of his first 12 matches in charge, and he has made a top-half finish theoretically possible after the club were in 15th when he started.
These are two of the more tactically compelling and entertaining sides in England, and this is a matchup that serves up intrigue, even if there's not much at stake.
Read on for my Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction and Premier League match preview.
Crystal Palace
Since Glasner's appointment, Palace have looked like one of the more difficult propositions in the league. The Eagles have won five of their last six fixtures, including a remarkable 1-0 triumph at Anfield and a 4-0 thrashing of an injury-decimated Manchester United at home. Selhurst Park is always a difficult place for opposing teams to visit, and even more so recently, as Palace have won four of their six home contests under Glasner.
Results are one thing, but understanding how they come about is another. With Palace, you don't have to look much further than the front three to figure that out. Jean-Philippe Mateta has racked up 10 goals in the twelve matches with Glasner at the helm, and behind him Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze have been among the most potent creative forces in the world.
It would be a disservice to just give that trio 100% of the credit and ignore the rest of the team, because every Palace player has been performing at a high level. Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz have provided dynamism on both flanks with their overlapping and underlapping runs, Adam Wharton has been a beacon of technical security in the midfield and Joachim Andersen and Chris Richards, in Marc Guehi's absence, have provided defensive stability.
Guehi, returning from injury, has come off the bench in the Eagles' previous two matches, so there is a chance for him to start. Will Hughes picked up an injury against Wolves last time out, and his replacement in that game, Naouirouo Ahamada, was shown a red card, so he's out for this one as well. Glasner said Jefferson Lerma is fit, so he'll likely partner Wharton in the midfield of Palace's 5-2-3.
Aston Villa
It's been quite the week for the Birmingham club. A Jhon Duran brace, with both goals coming after the 80th minute, salvaged an emotional 3-3 draw against Liverpool on Monday. Then, during their awards banquet on Tuesday, a Manchester City win over Tottenham guaranteed the Villans fourth place in the Premier League and punched their ticket into the Champions League next season.
Had Tottenham gotten a result, Villa might've needed a point or even a win from this contest to guarantee passage into Europe's top continental competition, but now this game basically serves them no purpose. After a grueling last couple of weeks, where they were eliminated by Olympiacos in the semifinals of the Europa Conference League, and more or less have stumbled to the end of the league campaign — they had won just two of their last eight Premier League fixtures — I'd expect an emotional letdown in this contest.
If Villa do play to their usual level, it's well-documented how good they can be. Their deep build-up is wonderful, and they love to draw in opposing presses to then play a line-breaking ball and generate a faux transition. The trio of Ollie Watkins, Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey have feasted when they've gotten the ball in those situations this season. Defensively, they're not too bad either, although their willingness to sit off and cede territory in a 6-2-2 block has gotten them in trouble at times.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Prediction
The line movement in this one sums up my thoughts pretty well. Crystal Palace opened at +160 on the moneyline and are now anywhere between -115 and -125, with most of that occurring after Villa's top four status was secured. On top of that, Palace's recent home form and general potency would make them a tough opponent regardless, but even moreso now that Villa don't have much to play for.
I expect the Eagles to win this contest, and, as a result I like the value on the their moneyline at -115.
