Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Pick | Premier League Odds, Predictions (Sunday, May 28)

Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest for the final match of the season at Selhurst Park.

Palace have had a massive resurgence under Roy Hodgson, as the 74-year old manager helped picked up 17 points in his nine matches in charge and firmly kept the Eagles in the middle of the table. This match may mean nothing to either side, but Crystal Palace's preseason point total closed at 46.5, so a win would take them over that, as they're currently sitting with 44 points.

Forest secured their safety from relegation with a historic 1-0 win over Arsenal last weekend at the City ground. It was a monumental moment for Nottingham Forest, who had gone through a lot of ups and downs this season after signing 30 players in the transfer window before the season. This represents a huge let down spot for them coming off the emotional high of beating a big six club at home.

Crystal Palace Triumphant Under Hodgson's Guidance

Crystal Palace have been a force under Hodgson, as the offense has gone back to playing a more traditional low block, which makes it much easier for Crystal Palace to attack in transitional opportunities. Transitional opportunities are going to be hard to come by in this match since Crystal Palace are going to be the one controlling most of the possession and are going to be asked to break down Nottingham Forest’s low block.

The Crystal Palace defense has vastly improved under Hodgson and even though the Eagles' defense has been average overall for the season, they’ve been rock solid against the bottom half of the Premier League table.

Under Hodgson, Crystal Palace have only allowed 8.3 xG in nine matches and all but two of those matches came against teams in the bottom half of the table. Against the bottom half of the table this season, Crystal Palace are only allowing 0.93 xG per match.

Nottingham Forest Have Deficiencies in This Matchup

Nottingham Forest have not been good defensively this season, as they’re near the bottom of the Premier League in npxG allowed, but they haven’t been that bad against teams around them in the table. Against the bottom half of the Premier League table, Forest are allowing 1.4 xG per match, while against the top half of the table they’re allowing 1.95 xG per match.

Typically, Forest play out of a 3-5-2 with the focus on being dangerous in direct transitional opportunities. They aren't the type of side that does well with a majority of possession. In fact, they average the least amount of possession in the Premier League. So, don't be surprised to see Crystal Palace control a majority of the possession.

The Forest offense has been bad this season and is almost entirely built on creating chances in direct transitional opportunities or off of set pieces. That’s a problem against Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace, who have been much improved in transition defense rather than Viera’s high pressing style.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Pick

The last time these two met was right before the World Cup break and the under 2.5 at -160. Has a ton really changed since then to shift the line on the total over 100 points? I don’t think so.

Nottingham Forest are going to conceded possession to Crystal Palace, play five guys at the back and look to hit the Eagles in transition opportunities. That isn't really going to work against a good transition defense that has been vastly improving under a manager that knows better than anyone what good defensive structure looks like.

In the same token, do you really trust the Crystal Palace offense to break down a low block, especially without Wilfred Zaha? I don't.

I only have 2.14 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under 3.

Pick: Under 3 (-125)