Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +375 |
| Tottenham Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Tottenham will look to make it eight wins from their opening 10 matches this season when they visit Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace this Friday. In the other dugout for this match, Palace will look to bounce back after they were thrashed 4-0 at St. James' Park this past weekend.
Crystal Palace have had their fair share of ups and downs so far as they currently sit 11th in the league. They have won three, lost three and drawn three in their opening nine matches, which perfectly describes where they stand amongst the rest of the sides in the league.
Spurs currently sit top of the Premier League and are yet to lose a match so far this season. The job that Ange Postecoglou has done is nothing short of remarkable after the last few years under Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho. They will look to keep this momentum going after their 2-0 victory against Fulham this past Monday.
Let’s get into how I see this match playing out and how to bet Crystal Palace vs Tottenham.
Crystal Palace
Roy Hodgson has steadied the sinking ship of last season and has now made Palace a truly tough side to play against. Over the last month they have picked up points against Fulham, Nottingham Forest and even a 1-0 at Old Trafford over Manchester United.
Hodgson has come in and made Palace a very organized side who are going to allow pressure and defend for much of the match. This has had success thus far, bar the Newcastle match, but at Selhurst Park they have been a very serviceable defensive side. In their four matches at Selhurst Park they have conceded an xGA of 4.8, which is eighth-best in the league.
With Sam Johnstone in goal, Palace have actually been slightly under-performing as well. They have conceded 11 goals on 9.5 PsxG, resulting in a -1.5 +/-, third-worst in the league. Just going off of the numbers, they are due for some positive regression at some point this season.
Going forward is where Palace have seen real issues. Palace have been without Michael Olise for the entirety of this season and Eze for the past two matches, and their attacking quality has diminished as a result. They are joint-bottom of the league with only 4.2 xG at Selhurst Park in their four matches.
Only Odsonne Édouard has a higher xG/90 than Eze’s 0.33 and no one was even close to Olise’s 0.29 xA/90 last season. This type of creativity is impossible to replace without the proper personnel in the side. No one in this Crystal Palace team is able to play in these tight spaces and find open men like Olise and Eze. Without them Hodgson is going to struggle to create opportunities.
Tottenham
Spurs have been one of the best sides in the league this season, but there is no doubt that they have been on the better end of some good fortune and have played one of the easiest schedules. Even in the Liverpool match they were facing nine men for the last thirty minutes and could have easily lost to Sheffield United without the two injury time goals.
Having said that, Spurs have been playing at a much higher level than they were last season. They are sixth in xG, seventh in xGA and have played some beautiful football under Ange. The signings of Maddison, van de Ven and Vicario have been nothing short of amazing in these first nine matches.
Maddison has genuinely been one of the best players in the world in this Spurs side. He has 5.5 xG+xA and has eight goal contributions already. van de Ven has a 94% pass success rate and an 88.9% tackle success rate, second only to Everton’s Jarrad Branthwaite.
Vicario has been a massive improvement for them over Hugo Lloris. He has been a fantastic distributor as well as shot stopper this season and that has been one of the biggest factors for this Tottenham side’s build up play. Not to mention, he has saved 3.3 xG for Tottenham so far, the second-highest total in the league.
This could be a sign for concern for Spurs because we know this type of goalkeeper play cannot be sustainable, but it has been incredibly impressive nonetheless.
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Prediction
The only way that Palace will get a result in this match is if their defensive play is flawless. Hodgson will be playing their low block and will most likely be defending for all 90 minutes.
They have, however, proven that they are capable of this as they have kept four clean sheets already in their opening nine matches.
It is not going to be the prettiest bet, but I have value on Crystal Palace +0.75 at home because of a few factors.
Their defensive record is solid, mid-table at worst. This is a prime buy low, sell high spot with both sides. Spurs played just this past Monday which is a quick turnover to play on a Friday as well.
I will be playing Palace +0.75 at -135 and sprinkling the moneyline at +350 as well.
