Fulham vs Chelsea Odds
| Fulham Odds | +250 |
| Chelsea Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Fulham and Chelsea meet on Monday to finish off this round of Premier League action with a London Derby.
The Cottagers got a point on the road at Selhurst Park last weekend in a very boring 0-0 draw. They have gotten some good results to begin the season and have already distanced themselves from the relegation zone. Fulham took four points from their two meetings with Chelsea last season when the Blues were in turmoil.
These are dark days currently at Chelsea Football Club. They have spent over a billion dollars in the last three transfer windows and the club sits in 15th place after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa last weekend. There is no doubt that Chelsea have talent, but the lack of a plan really is hurting them from progressing towards being a contender for the top four.
Read on for my Fulham vs Chelsea pick.
Fulham
I know that Fulham have conceded the third-most xG and that they conceded the most big scoring chances, but I honestly think their defense is improving. In their last three matches they've held the best team in the world, Manchester City, to seven shots on the road, kept a clean sheet against Luton Town and held Palace to 0.30 xG.
One positive with Fulham is they do make it difficult to play through the middle of the pitch. Palhinha is one of the best mid-block ball stoppers in the entire world after leading the Premier League last year with 193 tackles + interceptions. Even with all of the big scoring chances they've allowed, Fulham are conceding the seventh-fewest shots per 90 minutes and are 10th in box entries allowed, so they are not going to get run over by Chelsea.
The problem is the Fulham attack is terrible now that Mitrovic is gone. The Cottagers have created only 5.4 non-penalty xG, which is second-worst in the Premier League to only Burnley. Their biggest problem is they don't have creative players that can get the ball into the opponent's penalty area or a reliable striker up top. Fulham actually have the eighth-most final third entries, but they have the third-fewest box entries, so it's no wonder they haven't been able to create high quality chances.
Chelsea
Chelsea are in a bad place at the moment, and given the injury situation I am not sure there is a way out. With the amount of money Chelsea have spent, you would think they would spend at least something on a striker, but they haven't, so I have major concerns of how they are actually going to score in this game. Nicolas Jackson is suspended and Christopher Nkuku is out until January, which leaves Armando Broja, who is just making his return from a torn ACL, as their only option up top.
The other problem with Chelsea is there are too many square pegs in round holes. Enzo Fernandez is currently playing as a number 10, which is not his best role. He's much better in a double pivot with Caicedo playing as the the number eight or the midfielder that gets forward most often because of how good he in ball winning and at progressing the ball. Levi Colwill is one of the best young center backs in the world is having to play as a left back because Ben Chilwell is hurt. On top of all of that, Malo Gusto is suspended for the next three matches and Reece James is still hurt, so Chelsea don't have a right back available, which means someone is going to have to play out of position.
With all the issues with the Chelsea offense, their defense has been quite solid. The Blues have only conceded 6.3 xG in their first six matches and have allowed the fewest final third entries of anyone in the Premier League.
Fulham vs Chelsea
Pick & Prediction
All of the process metrics for Chelsea are all really encouraging. They have under-performed their expected goals pretty drastically on offense and normally I'd be telling you that they'd be due for that positive regression very soon. But we are in a different situation here. Chelsea don't have a finisher up front, Nicolas Jackson is suspended, they have too many guys playing out of position and both of their usual full backs are not going to play, which is massive for Pochettino's system to thrive.
Fulham's defense overall has been bad this season, but they have been improving as of late, especially with that performance at Crystal Palace last weekend. Yet, their offense is still one of the worst in the Premier League.
So, I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 via bet365)
