Leicester City vs Aston Villa Odds
Leicester City Odds | +170 |
Aston Villa Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-150 / +110) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The Brendan Rodgers era reached the end on Sunday after Leicester City parted ways with its manager following a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace in the Premier League. The Foxes slipped all the way to 18th in the table and now find themselves in the heart of the relegation battle with 10 matches to play.
Leicester have more talent on their roster than their place on the table and performances have shown throughout most of the season. Seven consecutive matches in all competitions without a victory meant that Leicester could no longer keep Rodgers around despite the big hit to the club's finances.
The Foxes will host Aston Villa on Tuesday and are now a good buy low candidate following the poor run of form and clear market downgrade on them.
Leicester City in Rare Buy Position
The Foxes haven't been good this season by any metric, but their numbers aren't bad enough to be relegation level. Even when you consider that the attack has over performed from a finishing perspective, Leicester are in the pack of teams that could get relegated because the margins between them are so small. Leicester are still a step above the relegation favorites and firing Rodgers could be the exact spark they need.
One major issue all season long has been goalkeeping. Only three teams have a worse post-shot expected goal difference and that's a major contributor to why the Foxes have underperformed xG defensively so much. The attack isn't great at creating big scoring chances from inside the penalty area either, but this is a matchup that suits them.
Aston Villa are determined to play out from the back under Unai Emery and are at risk of high giveaways because of that. The Foxes have their defensive issues overall — bottom three in big scoring chances and non-penalty xG allowed per match – but they still rank in the top 10 in ball recoveries and top eight in high turnovers forced.
Leicester should get a few excellent attacks with James Maddison and Harvey Barnes running at Aston Villa's poor transition defense in space. The return of Jonny Evans from injury also can't hurt a defense that has been shorthanded from a personnel perspective nearly all season long.
Aston Villa Pushing Their Luck
Despite the countless high turnovers and risky moments, the results have come for the Villans and Emery has Aston Villa into the top half of the table. The defense remains quite poor match-to-match and it’s quite remarkable that Villa escaped their last five matches without a loss.
This is the same Villa defense that conceded four goals and 2.6 xG at home against Leicester last month. The same one that let Arsenal and City each post more than 3 xG and really rode their luck against Chelsea on Saturday. When the Villans played Liverpool and Leeds United, two teams that are also good at forcing high turnovers, they conceded 2.7 and 2.4 xGA, respectively.
The 2-0 road win against Chelsea gave them some market love, but it was also one of the flukiest results of the entire season. Chelsea completely shut down Villa's attempts to build from the back and dominated the field tilt. Game state does play a small role in that, but the Villans weren't able to prevent Chelsea from creating good scoring chances at all.
Villa moved themselves into the top half because they have four wins in five matches. I'm not buying that they are a much better team when compared to earlier this season.
Leicester City vs Aston Villa Pick
Leicester are still capable of forcing high turnovers and breaking at pace towards a scrambling defense. It’s one of their major strengths and part of why the Foxes are a great buy low on Tuesday. Since returning from the World Cup break, Leicester and Aston Villa have the exact same xG difference at -0.44 per 90. Villa have rode some hot finishing, while Leicester have finally regressed toward the bottom of the table.
I haven’t bet on Leicester a single time all season long because my numbers have consistently had them rated lower than the betting market does. For Tuesday’s clash with Aston Villa, that’s no longer the case. The market moved solidly against Leicester City following their uncompetitive defeat to Crystal Palace on Saturday and toward Villa following their road upset win.
I’d bet Leicester City draw no bet at -120 or better.
