Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Odds
Liverpool Odds | -600 |
Nottingham Forest Odds | +1500 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+122 / -148) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+112 / -142) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Liverpool look build off their 6-1 victory over Leeds United when they host Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
Nottingham Forest find themselves in the relegation zone and it's looking bleak if they're going to get out. They were thoroughly beaten in their previous outing against Manchester United 2-0 and allowed United to create 3.5 xG. They did have a famous win over Liverpool in the previous meeting 1-0 at the City Ground, so the question is, can they give Liverpool problems once again?
Liverpool are flying high at the moment, scoring eight goals in their last two matches and Jurgen Klopp seems to have found new life with some new tactics involving Trent Alexander-Arnold. Liverpool are also getting healthy at the right time for a final push for a Champions League spot, but they will likely need to win out to have any shot of achieving that.
Liverpool Finally Clicking
Liverpool had their two best offensive performance of the season against Arsenal and Leeds, creating a combined 6.1 xG in those two matches. The Reds have looked better and better offensively lately and Klopp inverted Alexander-Arnold into the midfield over the past two matches.
That provides Liverpool the ability to build up in a 3-2-5 shape and push a ton of attackers forward to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best ball-progressors and suppliers in the Premier League for a long time now, so this has given Liverpool new life.
Even though the Reds have gone through rough patches this season, this is still one of the best offenses in the Premier League. Having Luis Diaz healthy only makes this attack more dangerous and for Liverpool to be at their best the match has to be fast-paced and played in transition. That is the exact type of match where Nottingham Forest are at their best as well.
There are still real defensive issues for Liverpool. Leeds scored and created 1.4 xG against them on Monday, which means they have now conceded 10.1 xG in their last five matches in all competitions. They can’t counter-press the way that they used to and the team is not the same as it once was. So, even Nottingham Forest should have some transition opportunities.
Nottingham Forest in Dire Need of Results
Times are tough at Nottingham Forest, as they are in the relegation zone and in a dreadful run of form. Their last win came on February 4th against Leeds. Since then they've picked up just three points in their last 10 matches and to make matters worse they have one of the toughest schedules remaining of all of the relegation teams.
There is some hope for Nottingham Forest offensively and that is in the form of Taiwo Awoniyi. He's missed a significant portion of the season due to injury and finally returned fully to the lineup against Manchester United. The Nigerian striker has a 0.52 xG per 90 minute scoring rate in 9.6 90s this season, which is far and away the best mark on the team. His return also helps the rest of Nottingham Forest's attackers ,like Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson, who have been having to play out of position at striker during this poor run of form.
Their offense is almost entirely built on creating big chances in direct transitional opportunities and even though they're near the bottom in xG per 90 minutes, they have created the 13th-most big scoring chances in the Premier League, which actually isn't all of a bad plan against Liverpool, who have conceded the fifth-most big scoring chances in the Premier League.
The defense, despite adding Keylor Navas in net, has been incredibly poor this season. Nottingham Forest are allowing 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes. Despite playing a 5-3-2 out of possession, Forest are allowing the second-most final third entries and second most box entries in the Premier League. That's not ideal when the hottest offense in the Premier League is coming to town.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Pick
The key in this match is when the first goal goes in. We saw on Monday how compact Leeds were for the first half hour of the match and then once Liverpool scored, the match opened right up.
You can say the same for Nottingham Forest, who play five at the back out of possession under Steve Cooper, but once they go down a goal things do not get pretty. They're conceding 2.37 xG per 90 minutes. Additionally, with Liverpool's new found tactic of inverting Alexander-Arnold into the midfield, Liverpool can now press five attackers up on the last line of defense, which gives them more space and opportunities to create big chances.
Forest can be dangerous in transition, however, especially with Awoniyi back in the lineup. I have 3.67 goals projected for this match, and I like the value on the over.
