Liverpool vs Bournemouth Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -450 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -115 / -110 |
Both Liverpool and Bournemouth settled for a draw in their first matches of the 2023-24 Premier League campaign. The Cherries rallied from a goal down to draw West Ham at home, while Liverpool earned a point at Chelsea in an open match that became a second half stalemate. The Reds make their home debut after a disappointing week in the transfer market as they lost out on both defensive midfielders Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia to Chelsea. They instead turned to Stuttgart midfielder Wataru Endo to help add much needed depth in central midfield.
The Cherries showed a vastly different tactical plan in their first match under former Rayo Vallecano manager Andoni Iraola. That plan will be more difficult to replicate at Anfield on Saturday, but Iraola's track record against the top sides in Spain offers a potential upside for the Cherries in this fixture.
Read on for my Liverpool vs Bournemouth pick and prediction.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp played one of the most attack-minded lineups you'll see in English soccer in the road opener at Chelsea. A front three of Diogo Jota, Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz is pretty standard and offers a lot of pressing from the front. When you also play Trent Alexander-Arnold as a right back and then a midfield three of Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai, the field gets quite tilted toward the attack.
Mac Allister found himself at the base of midfield in build up, Alexander-Arnold frequently tucked into the center of the pitch and Szoboszlai found himself in the No. 10 role behind the forwards. Gakpo played as a free eight, but it left Liverpool without a lot of ball winning and defensive solidity in the center of the park.
Klopp does have a much more athletic midfield group this year than years past, which could help them a bit in transition. But similar to Borussia Dortmund at times last season, the system is predicated on having a lot of the possession and the opponent being willing to let you have the ball. Bournemouth aren't nearly as talented as Liverpool, but Iraola's system could cause some real problems in this matchup.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth finished last season with an 82% pass completion rate allowed, which was second-highest in the Premier League. They were extremely passive out of possession and didn't really want to have the ball much. In the Cherries' first match, Bournemouth did a stellar job of breaking up West Ham's passing. They allowed a 67% pass completion rate, which was second-best in the league on the opening weekend.
They had the seventh-highest possession rate against West Ham, compared to 19th last season. It wasn't exactly a game state situation either, as the Cherries controlled the possession in the minutes the game was tied too. The question is whether or not this will be an effective plan going forward.
The Cherries will not have a majority of possession against Liverpool's pressure at Anfield and superior talent. But I believe they can disrupt the Reds in build-up and catch them out in transition. The Cherries showed a real transition attacking prowess in the second half of last season and Iraola's system at Vallecano frequently caused problems for Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spain.
Liverpool are different than those two teams, but the talent level is comparable. Vallecano held Barcelona to their second-lowest pass completion rate of the season in their 2-1 upset win against the Spanish champions last year. They held Real Madrid to their third-lowest pass completion rate in a 3-2 upset of Madrid too.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Pick
Only one underdog won outright in the opening weekend of the Premier League season. The markets tend to underestimate underdogs early in the season because the favorites are still shuffling players in and out and sorting out their tactics and transfers. This is a high variance matchup because Liverpool still hasn't really addressed their defensive midfield issue and Bournemouth are more difficult to properly power rate because of the managerial change.
I'm much higher on the Cherries than the market because of Iraola's system, especially as an underdog against the bigger teams in this league. Bournemouth shouldn't be higher than +1000 in my view, so I'd bet the Cherries +2 at -120 or better and on the ML at +1000 or better. The Reds' defensive flaws make them difficult to trust laying huge spreads against well-coached sides.
