Liverpool vs Everton Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -275 |
| Everton Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +187 |
One of the oldest and most historic rivalries in English football welcomes back the Premier League from the international break as Liverpool host Everton in the Merseyside Derby.
Liverpool were not in the best of form heading into the international break, losing to Tottenham in the final moments and drawing Brighton to fall to fourth place in the table. However, both of those matches were on the road and Liverpool now get to return to Anfield for their next two Premier League matches as they look to get all six points and keep pace with the top of the table.
Everton have been the underperforming kings of the Premier League. The Toffees are sitting in 15th place with just seven points from eight matches, but the underlying metrics have been incredibly impressive.
With that being said, Everton have played the easiest schedule of anyone in the Premier League, so it's going to start getting a lot harder for Dyche's men to climb up the table and stay out of the relegation fight.
Liverpool
Liverpool have been cooking offensively and they have the ability to destroy Everton here. The Reds are the only team in the Premier League to create a big scoring chance in every match they’ve played this season, while Everton have been good defensively, but haven’t really faced any of the top tier offenses outside of Arsenal and they’re still conceding 1.30 xG per 90 minutes.
What has made Liverpool so good this season is the additional of Dominik Szoboszlai. He's perfect for Jurgen Klopp's brand of football because he is all action all the time. It was very clear last season that Liverpool were lacking an elite ball progressor from the number eight position on the pitch to get the ball up to the forward line. Szoboszlai has solved that problem and has fantastic work rate off the ball when Liverpool press and are trying to win the ball back. He also can hit bangers from outside the box.
Dominik Szoboszlai has won LFC Goal Of the Month for September. What a strike it was! 🚀
— The Anfield Talk (@TheAnfieldTalk) October 13, 2023
However, while the offensive numbers for Liverpool are fantastic, there are still real problem for them defensively and it starts in the midfield. One player that Klopp has brought in quite a bit is Curtis Jones because he is a very versatile player who can recieve the ball anywhere on the pitch and also had a deep understanding of his defensive responsibilties if the the left back gets forward to help aid the attack. Jones being suspended for this match is a massive blow to Liverpool, who now have zero ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch.
That matters because when Liverpool are in possession they like to invert Trent Alexander-Arnold into the middle of the pitch to help ball progression through the middle, because that's where teams score a majority of their goals. When he inverts though it creates a problem because he's not a good defender in transition, so one of two things happen. Either he's covering attackers in wide areas or Ibrahima Konate is going to out to cover the opposing attacker very far away from goal and then Alexander-Arnold has to slot into the center back position for cover. Teams have exploited this time and time again when they turn Liverpool over and without Jones available for this match, I am not sure Liverpool have a tactical option to stop Everton in transition.
Everton
What is Sean Dyche going to do in this match? What we’ve seen from Everton this season is they want to continue to come out and disrupt build up play, force high turnovers and create quick transitional opportunities. They did this with great success in their last match against Bournemouth, but are they going to try and press Liverpool high?
We’ve seen one match so far where Everton have played top tier competition. That was against Arsenal and it turned out to be a very boring match. In that match, they allowed Arsenal to have a 90.3% build up completion percentage, had an 18.3 PPDA and only forced five high turnovers. So, I question if Dyche is going to go back to his old ways and will sit in a 4-5-1 out of possession and look to hit Liverpool on the counter.
However, Liverpool play a much different style than Arsenal. They don’t want slow build up possession, although they are good at breaking down low blocks. They want to primarily play in transition, which is where they are at their best. So, I think what you’ll see is not necessarily Everton pressing high, but setting a lot of traps in a mid-block to try turnovers in their own end of the pitch and get transitional opportunities that way, which can work against Liverpool.
Jones is still suspended for this match, which means Liverpool will have to be more compact in the middle of the pitch trying to limit central transition opportunities, which also means Everton gets to do what they do best, create chances via crosses. The Toffees have attempted 177 crosses this season, which is the second-most in the Premier League. Liverpool are allowing the 11th-most crosses into their penalty area, so Everton can without a doubt create chances that way. Also, as is a staple with Sean Dyche teams, Everton have been very good on set pieces this year, scoring five goals and creating 4.33 xG.
Liverpool vs Everton
Pick & Prediction
The tactical set up of this match really does favor Everton no matter what Sean Dyche decides to do. In my opinion, his best method is to not play too conservative or too aggressive, as somewhere in the middle will work perfectly. To be successful, Everton need to create those transition opportunities via forcing turnovers from their mid block. Given the amount of expected goals Everton has created so far, they can put the ball in the back of the net against Liverpool.
Liverpool's offense is incredibly difficult to slow down, even if you are a solid defensive team playing in a low defensive block – just ask West Ham. They will be able to create a lot of chances against this Everton backline that has had issues this season against teams in the bottom half of the table.
The best success for both teams in this match should primarily be playing in transition, which should create a very end to end style match.
I have both teams to score projected at -201, so I love the value on the current line of -150 at bet365.
