Liverpool faces Manchester City this Sunday in what could be a season-defining game already. Liverpool are currently first, with a chance to go 11 points ahead of Manchester City with a win, while City needs a positive result to remain in the title fight.
Liverpool have been the best soccer team in the world this season. They are first in both their domestic league and in the Champions League, having beaten European champions Real Madrid 2-0 on Wednesday. Mohammed Salah and his partners have steamrolled any kind of competition, but this is their biggest test yet.
Manchester City are on a completely opposite roll. Pep Guardiola's team is still second in the Premier League but has lost its last three league games. While it initially looked like they were going to finally get a first win in 5 games when they led against Feyenoord 3-0 in the 75th minute, the Citizens crumbled and conceded three late goals and are now winless in six games.
Here is my Liverpool vs. Manchester City prediction and English Premier League odds for today's match.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -134 | 2.5 -175o / 137u | +240 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +105 | 2.5 -175o / 137u | +105 |
- Liverpool vs. Manchester City moneyline odds: Liverpool +105, Draw +260, Manchester City +240
- Liverpool vs. Manchester City over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -137, Under -175)
- Liverpool vs. Manchester City pick: Liverpool Moneyline
I am backing Liverpool to Win in the Liverpool vs. Manchester City match.
Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool heads into this crucial clash against Manchester City with momentum and an opportunity to take a commanding position in the title race. Mo Salah remains the Reds’ talisman, boasting 16 goal contributions (10 goals, six assists) this season, including a stellar record of seven league goals against City during his Liverpool career. His form, combined with Liverpool's blistering transition play, makes them a nightmare matchup for a City side struggling to handle counters.
Arne Slot’s pressing philosophy has Liverpool firing on all cylinders, with the team leading the league in shots from fast breaks (20) and scoring five times on the counter—second only to Tottenham. Despite a strong defensive record (eight goals conceded in 12 games), there are vulnerabilities, particularly on the left side, where Andrew Robertson and Kostas Tsimikas have alternated with mixed success. Robertson's recent penalty concessions in back-to-back games highlight a potential weak spot City could exploit.
Defensive injuries remain a concern for Liverpool. With Ibrahima Konaté doubtful, Jarell Quansah or Joe Gomez may get their first Premier League start of the season. Konaté has been instrumental in Liverpool's success, winning 71.6% of his duels and 82.4% of his aerial battles. His absence is coupled with the ongoing injury of Alisson Becker, which leaves Caoimhin Kelleher in goal, a situation Liverpool has managed well thus far.
A win at Anfield could send Liverpool 11 points clear of their rivals, a position they’ve failed to capitalize on in the past. After a dominant 2-0 midweek victory over Real Madrid, Liverpool looks ready to seize the moment, but they’ll need to bring their A-game to end their recent struggles against City, having won just one of their last nine league meetings.
Manchester City Prediction
Manchester City arrives at Anfield in uncharted territory, winless in their last six games across all competitions and plagued by defensive fragility. Pep Guardiola’s side has conceded at least two goals in six consecutive matches—a streak not seen since 1963—and has allowed 13 goals in their last four outings. Their most glaring vulnerability has been transition defense, with City conceding 4.1 xG from fast breaks this season, already surpassing last season’s total (3.6).
Rodri’s absence has been pivotal. Without him, City has conceded 30 big chances in just seven games since September 22. By contrast, with Rodri in the lineup, they’ve allowed just seven shots from fast breaks across their last 10 matches. The midfield has lacked physical presence, leaving City exposed to counter-attacks, as demonstrated in their 4-0 loss to Spurs with numerous chances allowed on the counter, a style Liverpool has mastered. Ruben Dias’s potential return is a bright spot; City has a 76.2% win rate with Dias compared to 61.1% without him.
On the attacking front, Haaland has maintained his goalscoring prowess, with 12 goals in as many league games, but has too often been isolated as the sole attacking threat. Savinho has also been a rare positive. The young Brazilian leads the league in open-play chances created (2.7 per 90), ranks second in expected assists (0.44 per 90), and third in successful dribbles (3.4 per 90). His creativity will be crucial, especially given Erling Haaland's muted record against Liverpool—just one goal in three meetings.
City's away record at Anfield is another hurdle. They haven’t won a league game there with fans in attendance since 2003 and have claimed victory in just one of their last 21 league visits (D7, L13). To end their winless away streak, City will need to tighten their defense while capitalizing on Liverpool's few vulnerabilities.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City Prediction
Liverpool’s potent counter-attacking game against a City side struggling to defend in transition means Liverpool is favored in this clash. Historically, the fixture favors the home team, with the away side winning just 11% of Premier League meetings. A Liverpool win would send the Reds 11 points clear, a statement result in the title race.
Liverpool concedes low-quality chances, translating to a low conversion rate against them. Conversely, City concedes the highest-quality chances in the league, leading to a higher conversion rate. With Salah tallying 11 goal contributions in his last 10 starts against City and Haaland scoring just once in three appearances versus Liverpool, the odds lean toward the Reds.
The return of Ruben Dias and possibly Stones may play a role in solidifying City's defense, but they could not have asked for a worse game to return. Anfield’s fortress-like atmosphere, coupled with City’s defensive struggles and Liverpool’s high-pressing intensity and counter-attacking prowess, tips this showdown in favor of the home side.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City Pick: Liverpool to Win (+110 on DraftKings)
