Man City vs Brighton Odds
| Man City Odds | -300 |
| Brighton Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +470 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +106 / -125 |
Brighton and Man City both took advantage of some friendly early season schedules to gather points and vault themselves up the Premier League table. Both have now entered their gauntlet stretch since then. The Seagulls lost at Aston Villa then tied Liverpool at home and now will come back from the international break with the most difficult fixture in club football — away to Manchester City.
The Cityzens only faced one top eight opponent in their first seven matches of the season, but they lost at Arsenal and will play Brighton, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool in four of their next five league matches.
Pep Guardiola will welcome back the return of central midfielder Rodri from suspension after his red card against Nottingham Forest saw him miss a league cup match and two league contests. City lost all three matches he didn't play. Rodri might be back, but that hasn't stopped the market from moving toward Brighton as we get closer to kick-off.
Here is our Man City vs Brighton preview.
Man City
Manchester City's attack had a stellar showing against RB Leipzig on the road in Germany with Rodri in the lineup, but it's quite remarkable that three consecutive Premier League defenses were able to hold the Cityzens under 1.0 xG in three straight matches. One of the matches was EFL Cup against Newcastle, but the point stands.
Outside of an early chance from a set piece that fell to Nathan Aké in the penalty area, City didn't ever look like scoring at Arsenal two weeks ago. Brighton are a very different style of opponent, but City are sixth in box entries, eighth in non-penalty xG per 90 and like said above, they've played a relatively weak schedule of opponents this season.
When City had Kevin De Bruyne in peak form, they were able to attack with very few players and still have an extremely dangerous and productive attack. Now that Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez are essentially combining to fill that role as a tandem, City's numbers have still taken a step back. For me, this shows up in the final third to box entry conversion rate numbers.
City are possessing the ball in the final third as much as ever, but their efficiency in getting final third possessions into the penalty area is down considerably. It's 20th in the Premier League. That's the De Bruyne sized hole in the attack. Foden and Alvarez are special talents but City's transition attacks have not been good this season either.
Playing an opponent like Brighton that takes chances in possession and is quite open at the back could be the perfect get right spot for the Cityzens. But, Roberto De Zerbi has mellowed a bit tactically and the total might not have adjusted to some minor changes he made in the Liverpool match.
Brighton
Brighton played arguably their best defensive lineup in the home match against Liverpool just before the international break. Simon Adingra at right wing offers some good ball winning and pressing work, as he showed in the match. He ranks in the 89th and 99th percentile in tackles and interceptions per 90, respectively.
Solly March filled in for the injured Pervis Estupinan at left back and while he's not a plus defender at left back, his tackle and clearance numbers grade out really well for a fellow attacking midfielder. De Zerbi also opted to start new signing Carlos Baleba for the first time in defensive midfield. Baleba wasn't on the ball much as he had just 38 touches – 34 less than midfield partner Pascal Gross. Baleba contributed two take-ons, but more importantly he had five tackles + interceptions and six blocks. His ability to cover space in the midfield and add athleticism and ball winning is probably the best replacement to the loss of Moises Caicedo.
One match after conceding six to Aston Villa, De Zerbi had to adjust a little. He clearly did, and Liverpool still scored twice and created two expected goals. Brighton will never be a plus side in defense, but we're at the point now where the market might be slightly too high on a Brighton total.
We had two matches of De Zerbi vs. Guardiola last season. The first came early in his tenure, and ig ended 3-1 to City despite just 2.1 xG and 1.3 NPxG. The second meeting was after City had already clinched the league, and it ended 1-1 with 4.1 xG.
Man City vs Brighton
Pick & Prediction
Brighton games usually fly over the total regardless of the closing number or price. That's De Zerbi-ism at its finest. But Guardiola will have a lot of say in the pace of this game, and he'll want it as slow and controlled as possible on Saturday.
The Seagulls played Liverpool, a mediocre defense and the league's best attack, and the total closed at 3.5. Two weeks later, Brighton are on the road against a slightly worse attack but better defense in Manchester City and the number is the same.
