Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction | Premier League Match Preview

Saturday, Nov. 4

1:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Newcastle Odds	+180
Arsenal Odds	+160
Draw	+220
Over / Under	2.5  -112 / -112

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal make the trip up north for a massive clash in the race for both the title and top four when they take on Newcastle.

Newcastle found their form once again after a couple of shaky performances, beating Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the League Cup on Wednesday. Eddie Howe's side is currently sitting in sixth place and is six points off the top four, so in one of the more competitive seasons at the top of the table, matches like this are incredibly crucial if they want to qualify for the Champions League again.

Arsenal have been interesting form at the moment. They were held to a 2-2 draw against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, went on the road to beat Sevilla in the Champions League, destroyed Sheffield United 5-0 on Saturday and then turned around and were beaten 3-0 by West Ham in the League Cup on Wednesday.

Here is my Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction ahead of their big match.

Newcastle

Newcastle should be favored here, but the fixture pile up was certainly having an effect on them against Wolves. They were completely gassed and really didn’t press high that much because physically they couldn’t do it. That is a major staple of what has made Newcastle so successful and if they weren't able to do that against Arsenal and allow them time and space in build up they were probably going to be in trouble.

The good news is they rotated a lot of their key players against Manchester United in the League Cup on Wednesday and still ended up winning the match.

Howe has a couple of things that have changed in terms of their high press. Often times throughout last season Newcastle would press in their 4-3-3 shape, which brought them a ton of success. However, against Manchester United in the League Cup on Wednesday, they were pressing out of a 4-5-1, which is an interesting wrinkle.

There is something concerning to watch with Newcastle and it's a reason why they struggled against Brighton and Manchester City this season. With the flat three midfielders whether they are in a 4-5-1 or 4-3-3- out of possession they are allowing too many line-breaking passes through the center of the pitch. The good news for them in this match is Arsenal are actually struggling to play through the middle of the pitch, as they've created just 22.3% of their chances there.

If we go back to the match between these two last season, even though Arsenal won 2-0, Newcastle destroyed Arsenal's build up play. The Gunners only had a 78.1% build up completion percentage and Newcastle had a PPDA of 7.5. For context, last season Arsenal’s Offensive PPDA was 14.3 and their build up completion percentage was around 88%. They can do the exact same thing to Arsenal on Saturday.

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Arsenal

If you’re looking for why Arsenal are struggling offensively or why their numbers are down, it has a lot to do with their ability to build up through the central parts of the pitch. So far this season, 49% of Arsenal’s chances created have come from the right side of the pitch, which is the highest of anyone in the Premier League. It's because that is where their best player, Bukayo Saka, is. 

The other problem that Arsenal have had is their transitions through the build up phase have been a lot slower than they were last season. Since they haven’t been able to play through their opponents centrally that means their attacks haven’t been as quick and they’ve had to rely more on deep circulation in the final third to create their chances. The other aspect of Arsenal's offense is they haven't scored in the first 15 minutes of any Premier League match. The Gunners largely benefited for scoring early goals and being able to play freely in transition while playing with a lead, but now they aren't afforded that luxury. 

The Arsenal defense and out of possession pressing is top class at the moment. Arsenal are only allowing 0.71 npxG per 90 minutes, which is now better than Manchester City, and they have also only allowed two big scoring chances. However, when you look at the three matches where they’ve allowed over 1 xG against Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Tottenham, the reason for that is mistakes in build up that lead to transitional opportunities. There is no better team in the world at forcing mistakes in build up and punishing you with quick transitions than Newcastle with the PSG match being a perfect example. 

Mikel Arteta has some thinking to do on what his best lineup against Newcastle are going to be, especially in the midfield. He's been playing Jorginho in a double pivot with Declan Rice quite often because Thomas Partey has been injured, which is a big worry given some of the key mistakes he's already made this season in build up.

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Prediction

These are the types of matches where Newcastle thrive. The Magpies are at their best when they aren't the ones controlling a majority of the possession, playing against teams that primarily want to build out of the back. There have been three matches this season where Newcastle have been held under 40% possession. Manchester City in the League Cup, PSG in the Champions League and Manchester United in the League Cup. The Magpies won those three matches by a combined score of eight to one.

This is also Newcastle at St. James Park, where they have a +1.46 xGD per 90 minutes since the start of last season, while Arsenal away from the Emirates have only been at +0.46 xG per 90 minutes.

Arsenal's defense has been one of the best in the world up until this point in the season, but the chances they have allowed have primarily come off of mistakes when they are trying to build out of the back. Newcastle likely are going to sit a little deeper in the 4-5-1 we saw against Manchester United in the League Cup in Wednesday, which could be big time trouble for Arsenal given their struggles playing through the middle of the pitch.

The reality is, Arsenal shouldn't be a road favorite. I have Newcastle projected at +113, so I love the value on them draw no bet.

Pick: Newcastle – Draw No Bet (+107 via bet365)