Newcastle vs Chelsea Odds
| Newcastle Odds | +145 |
| Chelsea Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Newcastle host Chelsea at St. James Park in a crucial battle for top four positioning.
The Magpies have the longest injury list in the Premier League. 13 players are currently injured or suspended, which has hampered Newcastle to play their typical high pressing style. They were throughly beaten in their last outing against Bournemouth, having to play a skeleton starting XI that looked nothing like the team that beat Aston Villa 5-1 on opening day.
Chelsea got a huge result in their last match, drawing 4-4 with Manchester City. It's been an interesting season for the Blues, who are yet to lose to a fellow big six club but have struggled to get results against the rest of the Premier League. The underlying metrics have been encouraging for Chelsea, but this is a massive test going on the road to St. James Park.
Here is my Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction.
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Newcastle
The injury list for Newcastle is long, but the question is, has the market overreacted to their injury crisis. At the time of writing this, Dan Burn, Callum Wilson, Sven Botman, Harvey Barnes and Lewis Hall are all out for this match.
There has been some positive news with Miguel Almiron, Alexander Isak and Fabian Schar being upgraded to questionable. If those three play, the Newcastle starting XI is pretty much at full strength. However, if any of those guys are out, Newcastle have no depth behind them, which makes this a very delicate situation.
There is also the aspect that Newcastle have largely been successful because of their high press and now have to dial it back because of the injuries and the added fixtures due to their Champions League obligations. Eddie Howe saw the writing on the wall and switched their out of possession structure to something that is more suited to a team that has to play often three times in a week.
Newcastle used to press in their 4-3-3 shape, forcing the ball wide and setting pressing traps with the touchline as an extra defender. Newcastle were so good at this because of their intensity and physicality with their pressing. That style works when the Premier League is the only thing you have to focus on. Now, Newcastle have three competitions they are concerned about simultaneously, which means something had to change.
Eddie Howe switched their out of possession structure to a 4-5-1 mid block to put an emphasis on limiting central progression and winning the ball in their midfield line of five so they can counter with a numerical advantage. It's worked in some capacity, most notably in their 3-0 League Cup win over Manchester United.
They can be successful in this type of pressing structure against Chelsea, it just comes down to who they have available.
Chelsea
Chelsea are without a doubt improving and the match against Manchester City were evidence of that.
Manchester City tried to press Chelsea really aggressively, but the Blues did a great job playing through that pressure and were able to get a lot of transition opportunities after beating the first line of pressure. Putting up 2.9 xG against the defending champs is no joke and it shows that Chelsea afe starting to finally finish off their chances.
It goes without saying, but Reece James being healthy makes such a big difference in this Chelsea team. His ability to calmly play through pressure and progress the ball up the flank and create chances changes the dynamic of the Chelsea attack.
However, there are quite a few question marks with the Chelsea defense right now. Most notably, their defending in transition is a question mark. City created their two biggest non-penalty chances of the match in transition attacks. If you go back to the previous match against Tottenham before the red cards happened, Spurs scored their lone goal off of a transition attack, even if you back to the match prior to Tottenham, Brentford basically create all 2.2 of their xG off of transition attacks.
It shows up in the data to because Chelsea is 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed meaning 38% of the time an opponent gets into the Chelsea's final third, they are getting into the penalty area. Since Chelsea are allowing a low number of final third and box entries it means that a large portion of that 38% has come off of transition attacks. That is a worrying sign when you are about to go on the road to play one of the best transition offenses in the Premier League.
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Prediction
Unfortunately, this is a wait and see situation with Newcastle. The problem the Magpies have run into is not just the shear amount of injuries, but the lack of depth as well. That was very clear against Bournemouth when Anthony Gordon had to start up top as the striker and 17-year old Lewis Miley was handed his first ever Premier League start at center mid.
If Alexander Isak and Fabian Schar both play, this line is way too cheap for Newcastle. The Magpies just closed as a slight home underdog to Arsenal and won that match 1-0. Arsenal are a significantly better team than Chelsea right now, so there is value on the Magpies. They just need their key players to play.
Newcastle have also been one of the best home teams in the Premier League going on two years now with a +1.46 xGD per 90 minutes and completely dominated Chelsea in this fixture last season.
So, if Isak and Schar play, I would have Newcastle projected at -115, so I like the value on the Magpies draw no bet at -117 if those two start.
