Wolves vs Newcastle Odds
| Wolves Odds | +280 |
| Newcastle Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Newcastle suffered a hiccup in form in their Champions League home match on Wednesday against Borussia Dortmund, losing 1-0 at home. The Magpies will now hit the road in the Premier League to take on Wolves and look to continue their excellent league form that has led to 13 points taken from the last five matches.
The squad's depth has taken a real hit in recent weeks due to injuries and the suspension of new signing Sandro Tonali. Despite this, Eddie Howe's side has very quietly posted the best underlying expected goal difference in the Premier League through nine matches while also playing a tougher than average strength of schedule in the first quarter of the season.
Wolves have pulled some major surprises of their own under new manager Gary O'Neil, including beating Manchester City. The attack has shown real signs of life thanks to a healthy Pedro Neto, and the ability of both of these teams to hit one another in space in transition should make for an intriguing encounter.
Newcastle
Newcastle's press and counter-pressing has caused major problems for their opponents despite not possessing a ton of the ball this season. The Magpies rank eighth in overall possession percentage and ninth in touches in the opposition penalty area, yet no team has created more non-penalty xG or expected goals in the PL this season. Despite the dynamic attacking output and talent that Liverpool, Brighton and Manchester City have, it's Eddie Howe's side with the most chances created.
We've seen teams make up for a lack of shot volume and field tilt by dominating the big scoring chances and the transition 1-on-1 moments before, it's just a much harder balance to sustain as teams begin to adjust to your style of play. This was somewhat on display in the Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund, when Dortmund consistently opened up Newcastle on the break by counter-pressing Newcastle out of possession and creating some high turnovers of their own. This is not how Wolves are likely to approach this match, but Gary O'Neil's side has shown some real prowess in transition to threaten on the counter if Newcastle and right back Kieran Trippier continually pushes forward in attack.
The injury situation also isn't optimal for Howe's side. He'll be without Alexander Isak, who left Wednesday's match with a groin injury. Sven Botman remains out with injury and now Tonali is in doubt and could be suspended any day now. Howe has done a really excellent job leveling up the Magpies midfielders to get both forward production from them while not requiring them to be in possession that often.
Entering the season, I had few doubts that Newcastle could remain an excellent defensive side. The question was whether or not the attack could sustain its output from last season. So far, it's somehow been even better.
Wolves
There was no team in the entire Premier League that the market steamed harder against in the preseason markets than Wolves. They closed as the joint third-favorite to be relegated given the lack of summer signings and the managerial turnover in the final week before the season kicked off. From the first match under O'Neil, though, Wolves have shown some real life in attack.
Pedro Neto has produced 0.54 xG + xA per 90 this year, which is comparable to his breakout 2021-22 season before it was derailed by injury. Between passes, carries and crosses, Neto is responsible for almost five box entries per match. His ability to lead the transition attack has propped Wolves up from worst attack in the league (last season) to just generally bad.
Wolves are 13th in possession percentage and 18th in field tilt this season, which suggests Newcastle will control most of the territory. In some ways, that could be helpful for Wolves. The Newcastle in possession attack isn't nearly as dynamic, and that will leave space for Neto to operate on the break. On the other hand, Newcastle are an elite front runner.
Newcastle vs Wolves
Prediction
The Magpies have a +2.91 xG difference per 90 minutes when playing from ahead this season. It's a repeat of last season, when Newcastle also had the best positive game state expected goal differential.
When they've been tied or trailing this year, Newcastle's xG difference is just +0.26 per 90. This is almost the inverse of what you'd expect. Most top teams turn the dial toward attack and pile on xG when playing from behind against a more passive leading underdog side. Instead, Newcastle are an open match bully and it's a major reason why they have the best xG difference against the bottom half of the league under Eddie Howe.
There's reason to be skeptical Newcastle can keep this up forever because it's so unusual, but the numbers completely match up with the eye test. Instead of targeting Newcastle on the regular ML or spread, it's better to target alt lines.
