Nottingham Forest vs Luton Town Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | -150 |
| Luton Town Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Nottingham Forest and Luton Town will battle for all three points this Saturday at the City Ground in a match that could be massively important for the relegation battle.
Steve Cooper and his men currently sit 13th in the Premier League with nine points, five ahead of Saturday’s opponent, Luton Town. Forest have found some legitimate form defensively over the past month, having only conceded four goals since the start of September.
Luton currently sit 17th in the league, avoiding the bottom three only on goal difference for the time being. In their last match prior to the international break, Luton blew a golden opportunity to pick up some points against 10-men Tottenham, where they eventually ended up losing 1-0.
This is not the most exciting game of the weekend, but an opportunity to make some money. Let’s get into my preview and pick for Forest vs Luton.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest seemed to have finally settled in as a serviceable Premier League side this season. Where they have really looked good, specifically at home, is defensively. They are unbeaten in three matches at the City Ground so far this season and have given up just 0.9 xGA/90. That is joint best in the entire league, only equaling Manchester City so far.
The defensive improvement of this team is mainly due to the midfield additions of Nicolás Dominguez from Bologna and Ibrahim Sangaré from PSV. Both players are vital in breaking up play for Steve Cooper. Sangaré ranks in the 99th percentile in tackles per 90 in Europe, while Dominguez ranks in the 92nd percentile.
This defensive surge from Cooper’s men has come at a price, however. While they have been one of the best defensive sides at home this season, they have simultaneously been one of the worst offensive teams at home in these three matches.
There is some cause for concern here because in their three matches at the City Ground so far they have played Sheffield United, Burnley and Brentford. These sides are not the most efficient defensive teams, so Forest will need to find more ways to create chances because this type of play going forward will not see many results end in them gaining all three points.
They will also be without Taiwo Awoniyi once again for this match as he is dealing with a groin injury. Steve Cooper will have to get it right when choosing his front three for this match. Chris Wood, Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Divock Origi all are available for selection.
Luton Town
Luton have found their start to life in the Premier league difficult so far. Yet, they sit above the bottom three and gathered their first ever Premier League win a couple weeks prior to the international break at Goodison Park.
An encouraging sign for Luton is that they are progressively playing better football as the match weeks come and go. They scored two quick goals against Everton and then defended for their life for the rest of the match and were successful in doing that, taking home all three points.
They were arguably the better side against Burnley, with a late moment of brilliance from Burnley’s Larsen winning it for the opponent, who did not have any clear-cut chances in the second half of that match. And once Tottenham were down to 10 men it was always going to be difficult for Luton to break them down as Spurs then played with 10 men behind the ball looking to counter, which is easier to do against a team of less quality such as Luton.
The two best matches they played this season were against Fulham and Wolves, with Albert Sambi Lokonga playing in both of those. He is a massive part of breaking up play in their midfield and since his injury Luton have struggled in the middle of the park.
The main problem that Luton have faced this season is just a lack of finishing quality in front of goal. Only Everton and Chelsea have underperformed their xG more than Luton have so far, with their np:G-xG sitting at -4. If a few moments had gone differently, Luton could be sitting somewhere close to where Forest are currently, so I see this match being a battle.
Nottingham Forest vs Luton Town
Pick & Prediction
Both sides have played a similar style in the league so far, which is let the opponent have the ball and counter as fast as possible. Normally when two sides who are used to playing out of possession play each other, it results in a stalemate of a match.
Neither Forest nor Luton are comfortable in possession, and I anticipate that to show in this match. It will be a scrappy one, most likely being played in the middle of the park.
Along with the poor finishing from Luton and the injuries for Forest, I anticipate a low scoring match this Saturday at the City Ground.
Forest have had less than three goals in each of their last six matches dating back to August 30th, and I see that happening once again.
My model has under 2.5 at -145, so I see enough value on the under matched with the spot in this match to take it.
