After a chaotic weekend of upsets, the Premier League returns with a fantastic slate of matches with the title race now fully on with Manchester City beating Arsenal on Wednesday.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace
| Brentford Odds | -110 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -138) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Two weeks ago, Brentford hosted Southampton and were -115 on the moneyline. The Bees demolished them, 3-0, created 2.2 expected goals and held Southampton to just 0.7 xG on 14 shots.
What's interesting about Brentford is how their formation changes when they face lesser competition. If you look at their match against Southampton, it was 4-3-3 where they bring off a center back and on another as opposed to the 3-5-2, which eventually becomes a 5-3-2 low block and stifled Arsenal for a little while.
Brentford has been awesome all season long if you look at what they've done against lesser competition. The Bees have a +3.8 xGD against the bottom half of the table. They also play incredibly well at the Brentford Community Stadium, where they've lost just one match all season long (vs. Arsenal) and have a +5.1 xGD in 11 matches.
Brentford are very reliant on set pieces, but they're incredibly efficient when they do get them. The Bees have the second-highest xG per set piece and rank top-six in percentage of aerial duals won. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, sits 15th in xG allowed per set piece and 16th in percentage of aerial duals won.
It's a dream day for Brentford!
Only a half hour into the match they're up 3-0 over Manchester United.
📺: @nbc, @NBCUniverso & @peacockTV#MyPLMorning | #BREMUNpic.twitter.com/JRRKBLJZHT— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 13, 2022
Defensively, Crystal Palace have been really bad this season, allowing 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes, which ranks 13th in the Premier League. The Eagles are also 17th in big scoring chances allowed, 18th in box entries allowed and 19th in xThreat allowed.
With that bad of a defense — on top of the fact that they struggle to defend set pieces — it's hard to see how they're competitive in this match.
I have Brentford projected at -153, so I like the value on them at -110 (Bet365).
Pick: Brentford -110 |
Brighton vs. Fulham
| Brighton Odds | -154 |
| Fulham Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-138 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: This is about as good a spot as you can ask for if you're Brighton.
The Seagulls have been an offensive juggernaut under Roberto De Zerbi, averaging 1.85 xG per match and creating 10.2 expected goals over their last five matches. They’ve also been incredible offensively at the Amex this season, averaging 1.7 xG per match.
Additionally, Brighton has been incredibly dominant against non-Big Six sides and have a staggering +8.6 xGD. The last time they faced Fulham, they lost, 2-1, but won the expected goals battle, 1.4-0.7.
The Fulham defense has to regress at some point, and it's way overdue for it as well. Since the World Cup break, Fulham has conceded only four goals off of 10.1 expected goals. Fulham also has allowed the most big scoring chances and the most shots inside the six-yard box in the Premier League.
If a team is going to defend Fulham well, it has to be able to defend crosses, which Brighton does better than anyone else in the Premier League. The Seagulls allow have allowed the fewest completed crosses in their penalty area.
Also, it looks like Willian is doubtful to play in this match, and he's one of Fulham’s more dangerous players in space.
I have Brighton projected at -205, so I love the value on them at -150 at DraftKings.
Pick: Brighton -150 |
Manchester United vs. Leicester
| Manchester United Odds | -175 |
| Leicester Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-163 / +130) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Manchester United played one of the most open and thrilling matches of the entire European season on Thursday in a 2-2 draw with Barcelona.
This is a textbook sleepy spot for United, though. It’s a sandwich between the two European legs against Barcelona with an EFL Cup final looming against Newcastle next weekend.
Marcus Rashford is in the form of his life, and that’s buoying the United attack. But the rest of the attack isn’t really joining him with sustainable production behind that.
Leicester is expecting to get Jonny Evans and Boubakary Soumare back from injury to bolster both the defense and the defensive midfield.
Casemiro remains suspended for Manchester United, which means that Fred and Marcel Sabitzer will start together in the midfield. There’s a lack of ball-winning in that group, and United’s defense has certainly struggled without Casemiro in the lineup.
In this matchup against a Leicester City attack that has finished at a ridiculously high rate and is due for regression, it may not be as costly to not have Casemiro. The Foxes have 36 goals from 26 xGF this year. They're below average in every meaningful attacking category and have long average shot distances.
I’m lower than the market on the true talent of both of these attacks and project this at 2.78 goals. I’d bet the under 3 at -130 or better.
Pick: Under 3 (-112) |
Tottenham vs. West Ham
| Tottenham Odds | -134 |
| West Ham Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-163 / +130) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Spurs had a midweek defeat in the Champions League immediately after a 4-1 away defeat at Leicester City last weekend.
If it feels like the wheels could be coming off for Antonio Conte’s Spurs, the underlying numbers paint a similar picture. The attack and defense are elite on set pieces at both ends, but this is a mediocre team from open play and now is dealing with a ton of injuries.
No defense has conceded more goals from open play than Spurs this season, and now they’re without goalkeeper Hugo Lloris for an extended period of time. Rodrigo Bentancur and Yves Bissouma are out injured in the midfield, Kulusevski and Son are out of form as wide attackers, and it’s pretty much just a one-man Harry Kane show at times for Tottenham.
Spurs found a ton of success last season by sitting deep, ceding possession and countering effectively with elite transitional play. Tottenham has been asked to have more of the ball this season, and they’ve made a ton of mistakes building from the back and dealing with pressure.
West Ham is one of the most passive teams in the entire league and is sure to show up to north London with a well-drilled defensive approach that dares Spurs to have the ball and break them down.
Tottenham is leaking goals and not producing nearly enough to warrant them being odds-on in this match, even at home.
I’ll take the Hammers to grab at least a point at -110 or better.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+108)
