Premier League Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Including Arsenal vs Southampton

The Premier League title, top four and relegation battles are as close as they can be heading into another fantastic slate of Premier League action. Manchester City, Brighton, Manchester United and Chelsea are all off due to the FA Cup semifinals, so it's an eight-match slate this weekend.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Arsenal vs Southampton

Dabbundo: Arsenal have now dropped points in consecutive league matches against both Liverpool and West Ham, moving the Gunners into a clear second position in the title race betting odds. Because of the must-win nature of this game, the Gunners are inflated in the market as a full two-goal favorite.

My projections only favor Arsenal by about 1.6 goals and the defensive regression has been notable for Mikel Arteta’s side in the last few months. Since February began, Arsenal’s defense is winning fewer ground duels, stopping fewer transitions and as a result is just fifth in the league in xG allowed.

The defensive fragility has been on full display for Arsenal in the last two matches, as they blew two goal leads in both matches. Arsenal isareback into their pattern from last season — a dominant opening 20-30 minutes followed by a mediocre final hour. The injuries to William Saliba and Takehiro Tomiyasu are proving difficult for them to overcome amongst the back four.

Southampton’s biggest flaws are in both penalty areas — finishing and shot stopping — hence why they’re almost doomed for relegation. But the Saints showed in the first meeting with Arsenal that their defensive press can fluster the midfield. Southampton nearly matched Arsenal in box entries, tackles won and shots attempted.

I’d bet Southampton +2 at -120 or better pre-match and look to add some +2.5 live if Saints go down a goal early.

Pick: Southampton +2 (-106 via BetRivers)

Fulham vs Leeds United

Cunningham: Since Javi Garcia has taken over at Leeds, they’ve been abysmal defensively. In his eight matches in charge they have allowed a whopping 16.4 xG.

Their pressing numbers are down a tad from what they were under Jesse Marsch because they’ve played a lot of top sides and are trying to have more defensive structure. It hasn’t worked because the roster as currently constructed is not set up to be a low-block defensive type team, especially with Tyler Adams injured. So, once Leeds concede first they have to come out of that defensive structure, which makes the match extremely transitional, where they are weakest defensively.

The good news for Leeds is all of their attackers are finally healthy. Luis Sinisterra has fully returned to the lineup and already has 12 shots in his last three matches, along with Rodrigo who has been a better option up top than Patrick Bamford this season. Even with all of the injuries, Leeds are still an above average Premier League offense, averaging 1.20 npxG per 90 minutes.

The Fulham defense has also completely fallen off a cliff. Over their last five matches against Brentford, Arsenal, Bournemouth, West Ham and Everton they've conceded 9.6 xG. The Cottagers are second to last in the Premier League in npxG at 1.59 per 90 minutes.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-105 via bet365)

Brentford vs Aston Villa

Dabbundo: This is a prime opportunity to sell high on Aston Villa at the peak of their market value. The Villans have won five straight matches and are unbeaten in eight league contests, and they’ve run ridiculously well to achieve those victories. Since February began, Villa have a -0.16 xG difference per 90 minutes. They’ve gotten blown out a couple of times against top teams — Arsenal and Manchester City — but they’ve also managed a +0.76 goal difference per 90 in that same time span. The overachievement has come at both ends of the pitch — Emiliano Martinez is on a hot run of shot stopping and Ollie Watkins is in the midst of a stellar finishing run.

Brentford are priced as a considerably worse team based on this near toss-up price at home. There’s nothing in the season-long data that suggests that to be the case, as Brentford have a better xG difference for the season. Villa will get the opportunity to do plenty of their defensive possession in this matchup, but Unai Emery’s side has a lack of midfield ball winning and weaknesses in defensive transition. They’re also not great on set pieces, where Brentford excel.

I’m buying the Bees at home.

Pick: Brentford – Draw No Bet (-122 via FanDuel)

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Crystal Palace vs Everton

Cunningham: The Roy Hodgson revolution has taken Selhurst Park by storm, as the Eagles have scored nine goals and won all three matches with the 75-year old in the dugout. These high-event style matches are somewhat new to a Hodgson-coached team.

When he was the manager of Crystal Palace from 2017-2021, Crystal Palace would typically play out of a 4-4-2 and over-performed their xG drastically. Patrick Vieira's 4-2-3-1 pressing tactics were getting stale and Palace weren't able to find the amount of space in transition that Hodgson's 4-3-3 has now afforded them. Crystal Palace may be over-performing, but 6.6 xG in three matches is no joke.

Everton have also had a much higher event style under Sean Dyche and a lot of that has to do with the fact that Everton are not just sitting back in the typical 4-4-2 we typically see under Dyche. They're trying to press higher up the pitch to disrupt build-up play. Under Frank Lampard, Everton had a PPDA of 15.3 and were one of the most passive teams in the Premier League. Under Sean Dyche, they have a PPDA 12.2 and have a much higher average defensive line. That has caused Everton matches to average 3.38 xG per 90 minutes. 

I think the total is far too low given how both of these teams have been playing recently.

Pick: Over 2 (-127 via DraftKings)