Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Arsenal vs Burnley, Liverpool vs Brentford

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Cunningham: How do Burnley score here? 

Even though Vincent Kompany wants his team to play attractive football, building out of the back and overloading the last line of defense, Burnley have done nothing in attack this year and that continued against Crystal Palace at home this past weekend.  The Clarets are only averaging 0.85 npxG per 90 minutes, which if it weren't for a historically bad Sheffield United team would be the worst mark in the Premier League. It’s a slow build up too. 

The Burnley attack has also been awful away from home this season. They’ve played Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Luton Town, Brentford and Bournemouth and they have scored three goals from 4.3 xG in those five matches.

Arsenal are the best defensive team in the Premier League now. In their last three matches against Sheffield United, Newcastle and Sevilla, they have allowed a total of 12 shots and 1.06 xG. If you take away the controversial Anthony Gordon goal in the Newcastle match, the Magpies would have only created 0.46 xG in the match. Additionally, Arsenal at home this season have been almost impenetrable, allowing only 4.6 xG in six home matches.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-150 via bet365) 

Dabbundo: Fulham manager Marco Silva may have finally recognized his striker problem. He benched Raúl Jiménez in favor of the younger Rodrigo Muniz last weekend in the 1-0 loss to Manchester United. Even though the Cottagers faced one of the worst defenses in the league, they still managed just 1 xG. Muniz has managed four shots in his first 1.5 90s, which is an improvement on Jimenez but still not enough to turn Fulham into a league average attack.

The Cottagers played poor defensively last year and made it work by outscoring enough opponents through the goal production of Aleksandar Mitrovic. Without him, there’s no real top striker and shot getter at the club. The market is still treating this Fulham side like the dominant Championship squad of two years ago or even the wide open squad from last year’s PL campaign. The reality is that the Cottagers are considerably lower event this season. The total against Spurs closed at three and was comfortably under. The United total was three and despite lots of transition, there wasn’t enough attacking quality to warrant that price.

Only Burnley and Sheffield United have produced fewer expected goals this year and the Fulham defense has improved out of necessity from league worst last year into a closer to league average unit this year. Aston Villa have over-performed xG from a finishing perspective more than any other team in the Premier League, and the total for this match is inflated as a result.

I’d bet under 2.75 at -120 or better or bet under 2.5 at +105 or better.

Pick:Under2.75 (+100 via bet365) 

Sunday, Nov. 12th

9 a.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Another week, another Nottingham Forest bet for me. The Trees have been abysmal away from the City Ground since rejoining the Premier League last season, but this stylistic matchup favors their passive out of possession style. Nottingham are dead last in final third entries and dead last in passes allowed per defensive action. Forest will let West Ham have the ball in non-dangerous areas and dare them to break down the defense. The Trees have their first choice defense and midfield available for this match and they have a rest advantage because West Ham played on Thursday in the Europa League.

I’ve been against West Ham more than almost any other in the Premier League because of their alarming defensive fall off. The Hammers have conceded the third most shots per match, which is about normal for them. Except now, West Ham concede a lot more box entries, many more high quality chances and is a bad defensive outfit. The loss of Declan Rice as a ball winner has left the center backs more exposed and the errors from Kurt Zouma and Nayef Aguerd have piled up.

From a pure expected goal differential perspective, Forest have slightly better underlying numbers. Their improved defensive metrics from a bottom three unit last year into a league average one this year is a major reason these teams are trending in opposite directions.

I’d bet Forest to get a result in east London on Sunday.

Pick:Nottingham Forest +0.5 (+101 via bet365)

Cunningham: Liverpool are absolutely cooking offensively. They are now number best in the Premier League, averaging 2.16 xG per 90 minutes, but this a much more difficult defense to breakdown.

Brentford’s ability to play a 5-3-2 out of possession and keep teams from playing through the middle is better than almost any team in the Premier League, and their match at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea is a perfect example of that. Yes, Chelsea ended up creating almost 2 xG, but before Brentford scored it was a bunch of low quality chances that didn’t really threaten the Brentford goal.

If Liverpool decide to invert Trent Alexander Arnold into the midfield when they are in possession, that is going to leave a lot of space out wide for transition opportunities for Mbuemo and Wissa to exploit Liverpool’s back three.

Brentford are also going to have major advantages on set pieces because the Bees have created 6.1 xG off of them this season, which is the most in the Premier League, but they’ve only scored twice. Liverpool struggle defending set pieces, ranking 12th in xG per set piece.

Pick: Brentford +1.5 (-132 via BetRivers)