Premier League Predictions & Odds: Best Bets for Everton vs Aston Villa, Man United vs Tottenham

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Dabbundo: Aston Villa try to condense the space in midfield and make it difficult for teams to play through them. It forces teams to try to beat their extremely high line and overcome the offside trap. No team in the Premier League has forced teams offside more than Unai Emery’s side. Facing an Everton side that is one of the most direct, long ball teams in the Premier League, the Toffees won’t even try to play through the tight midfield spaces and instead can launch dangerous attacks over the top.

Aston Villa’s defense away from home has been quite alarming relative to the rest of their overall profile. The Villans are conceding 1.6 xGA per match on their travels, which ranks 11th in the league. If you strip away penalty and red card luck and only control for open play, 11-on-11 metrics, Everton actually have better underlying numbers than Villa. Everton are +0.37 npxG per 90, while Villa sit marginally worse at +0.21 npxG per 90.

The Toffees have lost three consecutive matches to Spurs, Manchester City and Wolves, and the market has bumped Everton down a bit in its market rating as a result. These two sides have met twice already — Villa thrashed them early in the league and Everton won an EFL Cup match at Goodison Park.

I have this lined as a true toss-up and thus would bet anything plus money on Everton draw no bet.

Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+107 via bet365) 

Cunningham: Because of injuries Manchester United haven't been able to play the style they want, which means they have to play much more transitional than they would like. Essentially what is happening is because Manchester United can't build out of back with a lot of success, so they are utilizing a 3-1-6 build up structure and sending the ball from the center backs up to the forward line in hope of winning aerial duals. For this match, because Amrabat is off to represent Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations, Ten Hag is going to be forced to either play 18-year old Kobbie Mainoo alongside McTominay or start Christian Eriksen. Either way it's not an ideal scenario facing a team that is going to press relentlessly like Tottenham.

The Red Devils' defense has been so bad that they have only held three of their 20 Premier League opponents under one expected goal.

Heung-Min Son is off to represent South Korea at the Asian Cup, which is a blow. Son is incredibly important to this Tottenham team because he has been their most consistent attacker this season. Son has 12 goals and is putting up a 0.70 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is by far the highest on the team. However, that doesn't mean the Tottenham attack is going to be completely helpless here. Brennan Johnson has been really good ever since moving over from Nottingham Forest, putting up a 0.63 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, and Richarlison is starting to find his form in front of net, scoring five goals in his last five appearances.

Tottenham have been struggling with their two starting center backs. Since November 11th when Van de Ven and Romero went down, Tottenham have allowed 19.7 expected goals in nine matches. They have been saved by Vicario's shot stopping as he leads the Premier League with a +6.7 post shot xG +/-. van de Ven is back from injury, but who knows if he actually plays a full 90 minutes here and how effective he is coming off that hamstring injury.

This has the potential to be very back and forth, without much ball possessors in the either midfield, so I like the value on the over 3.5 at +115.

Pick:Over 3.5 (+115 via BetRivers)