Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Wolves vs Everton, Nottingham Forest vs Man United

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Cunningham: Wolves were basically gifted two of their three goals against Brentford with uncharacteristic mistakes by the Bees. That’s not really going to happen against Everton because they are not going to try and build out of the back and let Wolves press them. 

Despite the loss to Manchester City on Wednesday, Everton have things steered in the right direction. Since the beginning of November, Everton have a +5.5 npxGD, which is fifth-best in the Premier League during that time frame.

Everton also profile really well as a favorite because of their ability to press their opponents' build up effectively. In their nine matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, Everton have a +7.3 xGD. 

The Toffees' high press caused Wolves a lot of problems in the previous meeting or sit in their low defensive block and dare Wolves to break them down, which I am not sure they are capable of doing.

I have Everton projected as a +113 road favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet.

Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (-101 via bet365) 

Cunningham: This match has typically played out to a 1-1 or 0-0 draw in the five meetings since Brentford were promoted to the Premier League, but I think the total is too low. 

Brentford had three goals put past them against Wolves on some uncharacteristic mistakes in build up. When Brentford play teams like Crystal Palace they will set up in a 4-3-3 and try to be more attack-minded, while building out of the back. Generally, Brentford are a good build up team, but it’s pretty clear they are really missing Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry at the fullback positions. 

The last few matches, most notably the one against Chelsea, Crystal Palace has been playing more open and trying to build out of the back. In part it has to do with both Olise and Eze bring healthy, so it makes sense to try and get the best qualities out of both of them by getting ball their feet rather than just trying to send long balls up to them. Their willingness to play more open has shown up in the data too because in eight of their last nine matches there has been at least 2.5 expected goals created and for the season their matches are averaging 2.62 expected goals. Even against Chelsea on Wednesday there were 3.5 expected goals created from open play. 

The problem with Crystal Palace being a build out of the back type of team is their personnel at the back are not well suited to play through pressure. Crystal Palace are 18th in offensive PPDA and 16th in build up completion percentage, while Brentford can and will press high in this match having the fifth-best PPDA. 

I have 2.53 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.

Pick:Over 2.5 (+115 via Caesars)

Saturday, Dec. 30th

12:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Erik Ten Hag benched Antony and brought Marcus Rashford back into the starting lineup, an immediate upgrade for the Manchester United attack. There are questions about how good Rasmus Hojlund actually is, but there's major positive regression coming for the Red Devils in the attacking sense right now.

United have been a wide open pressing side this year. They've forced the second-most high turnovers and also conceded the third-most non-penalty xGA in the Premier League. They also rank top five in big scoring chances conceded.

The Red Devils’ matches haven't been particularly high event due to bad finishing in attack and excellent shot-stopping from Andre Onana, but the underlying data suggests the total is too low right now. United are not effective at keeping control in defensive transition against teams who want to play on the break. Forest will expose that.

Nottingham Forest played two matches now under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo. The first is clouded by a first half red card, but even in that match the Trees looked very lively in transition. Perhaps it's true the rumors that the players had grown tired of Steve Cooper and now the attack has some fresh ideas on the break. 

Given how open United are, this match should feature goals.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-130 via Caesars) 

Cunningham: West Ham picked up their biggest win of the season in a 2-0 upset on the road at Arsenal on Thursday and they’ll look to replicate the exact same formula against Brighton at home now. The market didn’t react at all to the Hammers win because of the reality — West Ham conceded 30 shots and 2.5 xG and was quite fortunate that Arsenal missed a ton of chances. 

The Hammers managed three shots on goal in the entire match — two went in and one was a stoppage time penalty saved. West Ham did suffer some losses in the match though. Lucas Paqueta picked up an injury and has been ruled out. He’s the key cog in the West Ham transition attack and there’s no player in the team that can truly make up for his passing range and creativity in midfield. 

The status isn’t clear yet on Mohamed Kudus’ departure for the African Cup of Nations, but there’s a chance he’s also ruled out for this match on international duty. As a result, the Hammers could be without two of their three best attacking players this season in this match. 

West Ham won the reverse fixture 3-1 at Brighton by destroying them in transition, but the Seagulls have improved their transition defense since then. As a result, Brighton are undervalued and should be a small favorite. 

I’d bet Brighton draw no bet at -104 or better.

Pick: Brighton – Draw No Bet (+110 via FanDuel)