Southampton vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Southampton Odds | +187 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-134 / +100) |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
Southampton look to extend their three-match win streak across all competitions when they host Aston Villa.
They had a couple of rough matches to begin Nathan Jones' tenure as manager, but Southampton are now absolutely flying, having beaten Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, Manchester City in the EFL Cup and Everton on the road in the Premier League.
Southampton are still in the relegation zone, so this match is crucial in their quest for survival.
Aston Villa are also succeeding under new manager Unai Emery, winning four of his six matches in charge in the Premier League. They notched a 2-1 win at Villa Park over Leeds United in their last match, but they were not very convincing trying to defend their lead.
Villa are currently in 11th place, just three points behind both Liverpool and Chelsea, so a win could allow them to jump into the top half of the Premier League table.
Southampton Accepting Tactical Approach
Southampton are set up to play very direct under new manager Nathan Jones, so they will most likely concede a lot of possession to Aston Villa. I think that will be a big benefit to them given the way Leeds were able to create a boat load of chances in transition and off of set pieces.
Leeds created a whopping 2.4 xG, 14 penalty box shots and had 31 touches in the penalty area. They were able to do all of that with just three 10-plus pass sequences and a build up competition percentage of 68.6%, which highlights how effective they were in transition.
Nathan Jones’ Luton Town teams over the past two seasons were by far the most direct team in the Championship. Luton Town are bottom five in average possession this season and about 25% of their passes attempted are long balls, and Southampton's tactics have followed suit.
That doesn’t mean Southampton are not going to press because Luton Town are actually top five the Championship in PPDA and high turnovers, so it’s not going to be a whole lot of change in terms of Southampton’s frenetic pressing.
Jones loves to set pressing traps in the middle of the pitch, which is a lot different than most 3-5-2’s who look to have opponents force the ball out wide and keep them out of the center of the pitch. Aston Villa don't have the type of ball carriers in the middle of the pitch to exploit Southampton and they really succumbed to Leeds' pressure in the last meeting as Leeds had a PPDA of 6.1 and forced nine high turnovers.
Aston Villa Overrated By The Market
The general perception from the naked eye and the market is that Aston Villa are a superior team, as they’re on fire under new manager Unai Emery, winning four of his six matches in charge in the Premier League.
However, there really isn’t a big of a difference in these two clubs' underlying numbers. Southampton are currently sitting with a -0.2 npxGD per 90 minutes, Aston Villa are at -0.10. Southampton are only allowing 1.26 npxG per match, Aston Villa are at 1.24.
While Aston Villa are flying high offensively, they have been running really hot under Emery, as they’ve scored 10 goals off of 7.5 xG and have created just three big scoring chances in their last seven matches.
Aston Villa love to attack teams in wide areas, which is why they were able to have so much success in transition against Leeds with Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey.
(image via totalfootballanalysis.com)
The problem is Southampton are a much different opponent than most, as they want you to play through the middle of pitch so they can set their pressing traps.
Kamara and Douglas Luiz are not the best ball-carriers or creators in the Premier League and I have major questions with Aston Villa having to control a majority of the possession and break down Southampton's defense.
Southampton vs. Aston Villa Pick
This is a great spot for Southampton at home, where they’ve played much better this season. They only have a -0.8 xGD, while Aston Villa have a -4.1 xGD away from home.
The market is also getting a little too high on Aston Villa under Emery and considering there is not a drastic difference in these teams' underlying metrics, I don't think Aston Villa should be a slight road favorite.
I have Southampton projected as a slight home favorite, so I like them on the draw no bet line at +108.
Pick: Southampton Draw no Bet (+105 or better)
