Tottenham vs Aston Villa Odds
| Tottenham Odds | +125 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
Tottenham look to end their bad run of form when they host Aston Villa.
Spurs were the surprise to start the Premier League season, occupying the top of the table for a large stretch, but now everything has fallen to pieces. Injuries have played a major part in that and given Ange Postecoglu's style of play and Spurs are in deep trouble because he is not going to change.
Aston Villa are flying high at the moment, winning seven of their last nine matches in all competitions. They have flown up to fifth place in the Premier League table. Unai Emery's squad has been going through a stretch of easy competition, so this will be a good test for them before they play Manchester City and Arsenal back to back in the beginning of December.
Let's dive into my Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction.
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Tottenham
As it stands right now, Tottenham are going to be without James Madison, Mickey van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Yves Bissouma and Richarlison. Destiny Udogie is questionable as well. Against Wolves, Postecoglu decided to play Ben Davies and Eric Dier as the center back pairing, which is not an ideal scenario. The reason for that is because Tottenham like to build up in a 2-3-5, so if they lose the ball, then there is a ton of space in wide areas to be exploited. Van de Ven and Romero are outstanding defenders covering that space and defending 1 v 1 in transition, Davies and Dier are not.
Tottenham’s press has been elite. They are No. 1 in PPDA, third in forced high turnovers and third in opponent build up completion percentage allowed. However, how many good build up teams have they faced this season? The answer is really only one – Arsenal. In that game they did have a PPDA of 7.2, though they only forced five high turnovers. For the season they are averaging 10 per 90 minutes.
The other problem that Tottenham are going to run into here is they have struggled against teams that play passive defensive blocks. Tottenham don't have a target man anymore now that Harry Kane is gone, which means Heung Min Son has had to play as the No. 9. So, if Aston Villa decide to sit deep and force Tottenham to break down their low block, I am not sure Spurs are capable of doing it without James Maddison on the pitch.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have been rolling by beating bad competition, winning four of their last five matches and putting up some fantastic underlying numbers.
What has made them so good is their tactical versatility. Villa want to control possession, but they’ve also shown a great ability defending without the ball in their 4-4-2 mid block. They do like to play a high line, condensing the space in between the lines, but really only Liverpool and Newcastle have exploited them for 5.8 combined xG. In their other 10 matches, Villa are only allowing 1.01 xG per 90 minutes and have only conceded five big scoring chances as well.
Aston Villa are going to build out of the back in this match and Tottenham are going to press them high to try to disrupt it. Tottenham’s pressing numbers have been impressive, but if they aren’t effective with the first line of their press, Ben Davies and Eric Dier are going to be exposed in 1 v 1 situations, which is something Aston Villa can take advantage of.
A good comparison of what this match is going to look like is Aston Villa's match earlier this season against Brighton where they won 6-1. Villa are perfectly comfortable handing the ball to Tottenham and daring to break them down, while also looking to punish them on the counter. It's what has made Emery such a good manager, especially in his last stint with Villarreal.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Prediction
Given the current injury situation for Tottenham, I do not think they should be favored. Dier and Davies are massive downgrades to Romero and van de Ven, especially when you are playing a high line, trying to defend in space against the speed of Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby.
Aston Villa have had two bad performances this season and they reason they were so bad was because their build up got dismantled by Newcastle and Liverpool. So, this match truly comes down to how effective Tottenham are with their pressing when Aston Villa try to build out of the back. They are the No. 1 team by PPDA, but Spurs have not played many good build up teams at even strength, so this may be a wake up call for them.
Villa are incredibly good at pushing their fullbacks high up the pitch to aid in the attack and create chances via crosses. Tottenham haven't been great defending in wide areas and if they are without Udogie, that makes the situation even worse.
With all of the injuries Tottenham are dealing with, I think Aston Villa should be a road favorite, so I like the value on Emery’s side draw no bet at +115.
