Tottenham vs Chelsea Odds
| Tottenham Odds | +130 |
| Chelsea Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino makes his long awaited trip to North London on Monday as the Blues visit Tottenham Hotspur for a London Derby. Pochettino brought a ton of success to Spurs, including multiple top four finishes and a Champions League final before taking a job at one of Spurs' two biggest rivals. His first three months in charge at Chelsea have seen a real improvement in their underlying numbers, but the results in the PL table have not closely followed behind.
The Blues enter Monday Night Football 13th in the table and could climb as high as 10th with a victory. Based on just expected goal differential, you'd expect to see Chelsea in fifth. The Blues have had a better xG difference than Spurs, for example, but Ange Postecoglou's side is second in the table and is the last unbeaten side in the Premier League.
Tottenham have undergone a full revolution from a performance perspective. No longer are Spurs are sitting on the back foot and hitting on the counter. Spurs are first in final third and box entries, but could Chelsea be an underrated side to steal a result in this match?
Let's dive into my Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction.
Tottenham
From a natural buy-low, sell-high perspective, this looks like a great spot to go against Spurs. Tottenham have surpassed any possible expectations you could have had for them to this point. After selling Harry Kane days before the PL season, Spurs have beaten Liverpool and Manchester United and drawn Arsenal. Spurs have lost the non-penalty xG battle just once all season — to Manchester United.
The schedule has been considerably easier than league average — Tottenham haven't played Newcastle, City, Brighton, Aston Villa or Chelsea and they played Liverpool up a man for the majority of the match. As a result, the market really isn't giving Spurs much credit with this line as a plus-money home favorite.
If you were to strip out the home field advantage from this match, the market is essentially saying that Spurs and Chelsea are even teams. Go find a Premier League fan or pundit that would tell you that Spurs and Chelsea are about even based on the fact Spurs are second and Chelsea are 13th.
Spurs have improved around the margins this season and the additions haven't gotten a ton of press. Destiny Udogie is playing an elite left back and the partnership of Mickey van de Ven and Cristian Romero has really blossomed in this tactical set up. Both have a ton of speed and play off one another well. Spurs upgraded the back line, but the goalkeeper has also been a major boost.
Tottenham ran ridiculously cold last season defensively, but Hugo Lloris became a liability as a shot stopper. Now with Guglielmo Vicario, Spurs have a plus shot stopper to help the defense around the margins.
All of these upgrades under the hood have coincided with James Maddison, the best value purchase of the summer to this point. Not only is he a plus finisher — similar to Kane who helped Spurs outperform xGF for years — but his chance creation is amongst the top in the league.
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Chelsea
If you wanted to poke holes in Spurs, you could use their aggressive nature in possession against them with an effective press and hit them in transition. Liverpool tried to do this but couldn't once they went down a man. United did this really well for a half and then ran out of gas. Arsenal won the ball off Spurs a lot high up the pitch, but never attacked enough with the ball to punish them.
Cheslea's elite defense is the great equalizer against Spurs here. The Blues have conceded the second-fewest big scoring chances in the league and they rank fourth in NPxG allowed. Spurs are elite at getting into the final third, but Chelsea's defensive press can match them. The Blues rank second in final third entries allowed.
Chelsea did receive some positive injury news ahead of this match. They will have Reece James fully fit at right back, and Mykhailo Mudryk should be fit for this match as either a wide forward or bench option. Chelsea are close to full strength here — outside of Christopher Nkunku — so we'll get a chance to see if Cole Palmer, Nico Jackson and Raheem Sterling are enough shots to be a top four caliber attack.
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Prediction
The Blues allow the second-lowest build-up completion rate and the second-lowest pass completion rate overall. Chelsea will be able to force a lot of high turnovers against Spurs and should be able to create transition opportunities from them.
The question, as it always is with the Blues, is whether or not they have the attacking quality to finish said chances. These two teams might be even in underlying numbers, but Spurs' edge comes in the finishing perspective. We know what Son and Maddison are as finishers. The Chelsea situation is a lot more tentative.
Given my hesitation about Chelsea's finishing and Spurs' potential regression looming for the attack, I'm taking a shot on this match ending as a stalemate.
