West Ham vs Everton Odds
| West Ham Odds | +115 |
| Everton Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
West Ham return home to East London after a disappointing midweek road loss to Olympiacos in the Europa League on Thursday. The Hammers have lost consecutive matches domestically and abroad and now will look to get right at home in a classic mid-table Sunday clash against upstart Everton.
The Toffees won none of their first five matches in the league and had just one point, but three wins in five has Sean Dyche's side playing its best soccer of the season. Everton lost at Anfield in the Merseyside Derby last weekend, but they'll feel hard done by the referee's red card decision.
They played the first 35 minutes of that match relatively evenly pre-red card and the crop of healthy attackers is producing some legit improved attacking production.
Here is my West Ham vs Everton prediction.
West Ham
The table has West Ham in ninth and Everton in 16th, but through the first nine matches of the season, Everton have considerably better underlying numbers than West Ham. The Hammers' defense has fallen off considerably to the point where they rank 16th out of 20 teams in expected goals allowed per 90. David Moyes’ sides of the past seasons would concede possession and territory, but they didn’t allow big scoring chances or large numbers of xGA.
The Hammers' squad depth is being tested by the extra European matches, and it’s important to note that the Hammers struggle in league form in the first half of last year could have been correlated to the extra European matches they played.
It’s true that the Hammers are really passive when playing with a lead and that accounts for some of the extra xGA conceded. But even in negative or even game states, West Ham rank just 12th in expected goals allowed. They’ve run five goals ahead of their xG this season and most of that can be explained by a hot shot stopping stretch for goalkeeper Alphonse Areola.
West Ham's attacking profile is textbook Moyes as well. They rank highly in xG per set piece thanks to their size and James Ward-Prowse. The Hammers create a lot of big scoring chances, but they rank 13th in expected threat and 16th in box entries per match. Playing this style can work against truly awful defenses or when in an underdog role, but it's harder to pull off against a fellow mid table side that doesn't really want possession either.
Everton
Everton have a real depth and squad fitness issue in the medium and long term, but the current crop of attackers are quite effective when fit. The combination of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Beto, Jack Harrison and Abdoulaye Doucoure is a very functional Premier League attack and maybe even above average. The Toffees are creating high turnovers and getting excellent shot production from their first choice attack.
Everton don't want to have a lot of possession of the ball in non-dangerous areas. The approach under Dyche remains extremely direct in possession and it's why they rank 15th in number of total passes completed this season.
The difference between this Everton team and the past Dyche teams is that the Toffees will be aggressive out of possession in trying to create those high turnovers. They rank seventh in high turnovers forced and eighth in field tilt despite those low possession numbers.
It's quite different from Moyes' approach and yet Everton have allowed fewer xGA and created more xGF.
The sample is pretty small for most of the healthy Everton attackers, but the shot numbers are quite intriguing. Beto has managed 4.4 shots and 0.5 xG per 90 in 3.3 90s for the club since joining from Udinese. Arnaut Danjuma joined from Spurs and he's added 3.7 shots per 90 and 0.45 xG per 90. Throw in some improved ball carrying and you have a solid wide forward. Doucoure doesn't take a lot of shots, but they're high quality. Calvert-Lewin has always been productive when on the pitch, he's just rarely out there.
West Ham vs Everton
Prediction
The market opened West Ham as a +105 favorite and there's been some solid Everton money to push the Hammers to a consensus +115 moneyline price. All of the minutes played by Everton reserves has weighed down just how good this full strength team is. I have this game lined as a tossup and I’d bet the Toffees at -150 or better to get at least a point on Sunday.
Everton had major problems with their finishing early in the season, but the current group is considerably more talented and there's positive regression coming for Dyche's Toffees.
