West Ham vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| West Ham Odds | -118 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +106 |
West Ham picked up a victory on Thursday at home in the Europa League against Olympiacos, and the Hammers will be hoping to regain their league form too as Nottingham Forest visit East London on Sunday. West Ham have lost three consecutive matches in the league and are winless in four, with losses to Aston Villa, Everton and Brentford in the last month.
Nottingham Forest hadn't won in the league since Sept. 2 until the Trees picked off Aston Villa at the City Ground last Sunday, 2-0. Their away form has been dreadful since promotion to the PL last year, but the Trees' improved defensive metrics and out of possession defensive structure make them a live underdog in this matchup. Forest have just one away win this season, but they did manage a draw in a low event matchup at Crystal Palace that profiles similar to this matchup.
Forest are going to challenge West Ham to break down a lower block and the Hammers' metrics are quite mediocre in that department.
Let's dive into my West Ham vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
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West Ham
I’ve been against West Ham more than almost any other team in the Premier League because of their alarming defensive fall off. The Hammers have conceded the third-most shots per match, which is about normal for them. Except now, West Ham concede a lot more box entries, many more high quality chances and are a bad defensive outfit. The loss of Declan Rice as a ball winner has left the center backs more exposed and the errors from Kurt Zouma and Nayef Aguerd have piled up.
The Hammers are reliant on Michail Antonio and Danny Ings for shot production from the striker role, and neither have been productive enough for a team that's supposed to be safely in the mid table. Ings is averaging 1.18 shots per 90 off the bench and Antonio is getting 1.01 shots per 90 as the starter. Mohammed Kudus has been an excellent addition to the attack with his progressive carrying ability and his shot volume.
West Ham are an average striker away from being a league average attacking unit, but under David Moyes' passive system, there's not a lot of freedom for men to get forward. The Hammers will get Lucas Paqueta and Edson Alvarez back from suspension for this match to help in the midfield with ball winning and chance creation as both were really missed in the loss to Brentford last week.
They were a bit unlucky to not get a point in that match last weekend based on xG, but West Ham also conceded from a set piece (18th in xG per set piece allowed) and looked consistently vulnerable when Brentford broke into space. Forest's set up isn't all that different from the Bees, overall.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest rank dead last in passes per defensive action and final third entries in the Premier League by a wide, wide margin. The Trees rank in the top six in big scoring chances conceded and are around league average in box entries, which tells me that there are constantly numbers behind the ball. Forest have improved their defense through sheer numbers behind the ball and a more passive approach. The attack has fallen off marginally, but not as much as the defense has benefitted.
Once you add in the improved shot stopping from American Matt Turner in goal, the Trees have a majorly improved goal prevention unit overall. The attack is reliant on a couple players occasionally pushing forward, and a healthy Taiwo Awoniyi is a major contributor to that.
He returned from injury to start on Sunday against Villa, and while it was a poor game in terms of shots from home, he had three shot creating actions and helped link the play in transition moments where the Trees created most of their chances.
Forest beat Villa last week despite having way fewer shots, touches and box entries. A lot of that had to do with Forest scoring on their second shot in the fifth minute and then sitting off. But Villa never created a big scoring chance and only put four shots on the goal of Turner. Last season, Forest weren't disciplined enough to pull off that kind of performance.
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
From a pure expected goal differential perspective, Forest have slightly better underlying numbers. Their improved defensive metrics from a bottom three unit last year into a league average one this year is a major reason these teams are trending in opposite directions.
Forest's home and away splits in the league are scary (+0.05 per 90 at home, -0.93 per 90 away from home), but I'd bet Forest at -110 or better to get a result in this match.
