You're probably wondering why I'm betting on COD this weekend, especially considering the NFL Draft is occurring at the same time. Let me first say that I am capable of handling more than one "sport" at a time; this weekend will be no different.
Typically this time of year, I have wrapped up my March Madness projections and working with NBA/MLB/PGA/WNBA my projection models. I still consider my main strength to be my ability to collect data, analyze it and build a projection model to find an edge in any form of betting — no matter what the league. My biggest weakness is not being able to go months at a time with having no sports to apply this skill to, which has been particularly challenging with most leagues currently suspended. To satisfy this urge, I have to create projections for an event that will happen soon.
Enter the Call of Duty League.
I built v1 of my Call of Duty betting model for the Dallas event a few weeks ago, gathering all of the player/team level data I could find and build sophisticated power ratings like I would for any other sport.
It's also worth noting that I was a pretty good Call of Duty player back when Black Ops 2 was around (not so much anymore). So I do have a pretty good understanding of evaluating what to look for in teams/players that would not only make them successful but also how to assess the data in context.
After the success I had the first weekend of betting on COD, and just how entertaining it was to sweat, I wanted to share with you my projected lines for every matchup this weekend along with my plays. Having action on these matches was a great form of entertainment during this challenging time and something I feel like I found enough of an edge to be profitable in. Let's have some fun with it!
Tip: Use our betting calculator to convert my projections and the betting odds from your sportsbook into percentages. You can find your edge with a specific bet by comparing those two percentages. Typically I'm looking for at least a 5-10% edge when betting this market.
London Royal Ravens vs. Atlanta Faze Projections
Match
- Atlanta -368
- London +368
Map 1 (Hardpoint)
- London +180
- Atlanta -180
Map 2 (Search & Destroy)
- London +205
- Atlanta -205
Map 3 (Domination)
- London +208
- Atlanta -208
Atlanta has completely dominated the league so far this season. With the league having to move away from live events and have everything played online, it’s a wrinkle that may help even the playing field a bit and could hurt Atlanta. Both of these teams were on BYE two weeks ago when Dallas hosted the first online-only event, so it remains to be seen how either team will be affected by the change.
Even with all of this uncertainty in the first match, I am right in line with the market. I am likely going to pass on having any action on this unless something opens up. If you'd like to get your feet wet with a small(er) wager out of the gate, look for getting London +200 or higher for the opening map.
I have the true odds for that matchup at +180. Yes, Atlanta is by far the top team in every game type, including Hardpoint. However, I have London as the fourth-ranked team in Hardpoint, which is why Game 1 and Game 4 (if needed) figure to be the most competitive between these two teams. Given the long layoff and new online format, it will only help the "home team" out of the gate here.
My Picks
None for now. Keep an eye on London's Map 1 and Map 4 prices.
Fun props for side action with your buddies
Map 1 (Hardpoint): MajorManiak – Time on the Hill
- Over 61.5 seconds
- Under 61.5 seconds
Map 2 (Search & Destroy): Wuskin – Total Kills
- Over 6.5
- Under 6.5
Map 3 (Domination): Cellium – Total Kills
- Over 25.5
- Under 25.5
Los Angeles Guerrillas vs. Seattle Surge Projections
Match
LA -108
Seattle +108
Map 1
LA +163
Sea -163
Map 2
LA -306
Sea +306
Map 3
LA +271
Sea -271
This is a fascinating matchup. On the surface, it's a coin flip according to my power ratings. I have LA as slight favorites here, which makes their +115 ML pretty attractive. Let me explain why I’m being aggressive and taking the correct score prop LA 3-2 at +315 instead.
The Search & Destroy and Domination matchups are going to be very unbalanced. LA ranks fifth in my S&D power ratings, while Seattle ranks dead last (by a wide margin). Seattle ranks fourth in my Domination ratings, while LA ranks second-to-last.
Considering Domination is only played once per match (Map 3), and Search is played up to two times per match (Map 2 and Map 5 if necessary), this is a considerable advantage for LA.
If LA can force the series to a Game 5, it’s highly likely they would win. This is what you would be betting to happen if you take them on the ML, why not just get three times the payout by guessing the correct score?
I have the true odds for LA winning 3-2 at +240, compared to that +315 odds posted in the market, which is roughly a 5% edge.
LA -195 for Map 2 (S&D) is the other bet I’m locking in before the match. As I mentioned above, LA thrives in Search and stinks at everything else, Seattle is by far the worst team in the league at Search.
Despite the steep price, this is still a ton of value, considering my model thinks this line should be closer to -300.
My Picks
- Map 2 (Search) LA -195
- LA 3-2 +315
Fun props for side action with your buddies
Map 1: Octane – Time on the Hill
- Over 76.5 seconds
- Under 76.5 seconds
Map 2: AquA – total Kills
- Over 6.5
- Under 6.5
Map 3: Apathy total captures
- Over 5.5
- Under 5.5
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OpTic Gaming Los Angeles vs. Dallas Empire Projections
Match
- OpTic +140
- Dallas -140
Map 1
- OpTic -111
- Dallas +111
Map 2
- OpTic +243
- Dallas -243
Map 3
- OpTic -117
- Dallas +117
The betting angle I’m taking for this matchup is an aggressive one, but it's a path I see quite a bit of value in. To start, I’m taking Optic +130 to win Map 1. My model indicates Optic should be slight favorites (-111). They grade out as sixth in my Hardpoint power ratings, with Dallas just below them at seventh.
Game 2 is Search & Destroy, and I’m showing value on Dallas there at their -180 price. Dallas is in a tier all by itself as the second-ranked team in my power ratings for that format, while LA ranks third-worst. Dallas has a huge edge for Maps 2 and 5, as a result, and Maps 1/3/4 are essentially coin flips.
That dynamic is also why I see a ton of value in taking OpTic +1.5 (-130) for the match, which I make closer to -192. They should be able to either win the match outright or at least force a Game 5. If this match does go to a Game 5, I would willing to pull the trigger again on Dallas at any price -200 or lower.
As I mentioned above, this is a very aggressive path, but so far, I have learned that’s what makes betting on COD so much fun and profitable.
My picks
- Optic +1.5 -130
- Optic Map 1 +130
- Dallas Map 2 -180
- Dallas Map 5 (if -200 or lower)
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New York Subliners vs. Chicago Huntsmen Projections
Match
- NY +650
- Chicago -650
Map 1
- NY +210
- Chicago -210
Map 2
- NY +283
- Chicago -283
Map 3
- NY +336
- Chicago -336
Chicago is technically the "host" of this tournament. However, with the league moving away from live events and having everyone play from home, there isn't any home-field advantage to speak of this week.
Despite not having that built-in edge, this is still a massive mismatch. Chicago is the No. 2 team in my overall power ratings, while New York is dead last. Chicago is going to be able to dominate New York in every single game type.
The market is not making it cheap to back Chicago, but I'm still confident enough in my power ratings to bet on them across the board. I make the odds for a 3-0 Chicago victory +157, meaning we're getting about an 8% edge with betting +225.
My picks
- Chicago -315 (Match)
- Chicago -1.5 -120 (Match)
- Chicago Map 2 -165
- Chicago to win match 3-0 +225
