It's Week 7 of the EU LCS, and everything is starting to feel more familiar for longtime league watchers. The meta is still drastically different, but game times are returning to their prior levels, and traditional attack damage carries continue to sneak into more and more games: Over 50% of teams chose to go that route in Weeks 5-6. With more game time, the units with better team-fighting capabilities are once again starting to assert themselves and dominate the teams that won through pure early-game aggression in the first few weeks of the split.
The summer split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 79-54 (+18.85 units).
If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.
- Three biggest esports DFS mistakes and how to avoid them
- Two most important stats for League DFS
- How to build a winning League lineup
For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs. Keep in mind, though, that we are early in the season; the samples are small.
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KPW Leaders
- Fnatic: 17.7
- Misfits: 17.6
- Splyce: 16.8
DPL Laggards
- Fnatic: 19.6
- Vitality: 19.2
- Unicorns of Love: 16.5
Bets
Schalke 04 vs. ROCCAT: Friday 8/3 at 11 a.m. ET
- Schalke 04: -175
- ROCCAT: +140
- Bet: ROCCAT +140
This one is tough. On the one hand, I want to believe in the Year of the Duck, but ROCCAT is just the better team, especially at the jungler position. An aggressive jungle focus on NukeDuck could make this match hard on Schalke, as the rest of their roster simply isn't up to par with the rest of the league right now. ROCCAT has almost double the first-blood rate of Schalke (67 vs. 33), and they take the first turret more often as well. Schalke has recently looked like the better team-fighting unit, but if ROCCAT gets an early lead it will be hard for Schalke to come back.
Giants Gaming vs. ROCCAT: Saturday 8/4 at 11 a.m. ET
- Giants: +140
- ROCCAT: -180
- Bet: ROCCAT -180
Giants have been the worst team in the league all split. They haven't performed as poorly as H2k, but they have a roster that is less adaptable. I'd take any team other than H2K against them at -180, and ROCCAT is having a pretty solid season, dominating Giants in all the important metrics: First blood, first dragon, gold at 15 minutes, etc. Everything points to an easy ROCCAT victory.
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Misfits vs. Schalke 04: Saturday 8/4 at noon ET
- Misfits: -180
- Schalke 04: +140
- Bet: Misfits -180
"Year of the Duck" memes aside, Misfits are right up there with Fnatic as the best teams in the league, and this Schalke team just isn't ready to compete at the top of the table yet, lacking a clear avenue to victory. Schalke is the inferior team in every major metric with a first-blood rate that is 42% lower and gold differential of -3,600 at 15 minutes.
Team Vitality vs. Unicorns of Love: Saturday 8/4 at 2 p.m. ET
- Team Vitality: -200
- Unicorns of Love: +155
- Bet: Unicorns of Love +155
Vitality's roster changes gave them a momentary boost in the standings, but this is about the time of the split when I predicted weeks ago they'd fall apart, and the roster shakeup only makes that more likely. The Unicorns aren't great, but they should play with more urgency this week and could revert to a roster construction and style that are more comfortable while Vitality adjusts to a new jungler. I like the Unicorns to keep the dream alive one week longer.
That's all I’ve got for Europe. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Nty9problemsDFS, where I will provide additional insight and picks throughout the weekend.
Until next time, I’ll see you on the rift.
