This piece is excerpted from a larger LPL breakdown for August 4. For more eSports content and analysis, check out The Esports Department.
OMG +258 (+1.5 maps @ -127, -1.5 maps @ +620) vs. Team WE (-357, -1.5 maps @ -101)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)
Starting Lineups:
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Eric, Sora
Team WE are likely heading to the playoffs regardless of this result, but a win would secure them a postseason spot. OMG's season has been over for a couple weeks now and they've started playing a few of their prospects. Despite making the series-ending error in game three to lose the match, OMG rookie marksman He "Eric" Qiang had an outstanding debut performance showing great discipline, situational awareness, and efficiency.
These two teams are similar despite their separation in the standings. Both rank in the bottom-four in the league in early game economy rating, both are below league average in overall economy rating, and while WE has the important edge in objective control, OMG should be able to plan accordingly. The most exploitable player for each team play the same position so what is typically a problem area likely won't be in this match. With both teams struggling to get ahead early or punish early, I think we'll get the LOL equivalent to two weak passing defenses against two weak passing offenses; a that takes a mere mistake or turnover to end it.
Team WE are 6-2 straight up but just 3-5 against the map spread as favorites this season and OMG are 1-10 straight up but 7-4 against the map spread as underdogs. I like the underdogs with the fresh-faced rookie bringing new energy and playing spoiler and take a map here. I also like the over 32 minutes on both maps with 21 out of 37 Team WE games going over the time total (12 out of 20 as favorites).
Picks: OMG +1.5 maps @ -127, Maps 1 and 2 OVER 32 minutes @ -125
Victory Five -270 (-1.5 maps @ +126) vs Edward Gaming (+203, +1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +496)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +127 / under -167)
Starting Lineups:
V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod
EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
EDG appeared to have turned it around after a tumultuous middle of the season, but they were mathematically eliminated from playoffs as a result of this morning's matches so it's reasonable to question their motivation here. While I don't think they'll mail it in, they might not have much to play for. Victory Five, on the other hand, could secure a top four finish and with it a first round bye in the playoffs.
Victory Five have faced an absolutely brutal schedule of that has included the other four of the top five teams in the LPL in their past five matches in addition to two other playoff teams in the two matches before that. Against the other four teams in the top five, Victory Five have gone 2-2 in matches and 6-6 in games even in the midst of facing them all in near back-to-back succession. They're the real deal!
I like the Victory Five on the moneyline here. EDG have been an excellent against the map spread team against good teams going 1-6 straight up but 4-2 against the map spread as underdogs this season. They're capable of taking a game but their inconsistencies have made it difficult for them to secure series wins against the elite teams in the LPL which includes Victory Five.
Pick: Victory Five ML @ -270
