The business end of Euro 2024 has arrived with the quarterfinals coming on Friday and Saturday.
Here are my Euro 2024 picks and predictions ahead of Turkey vs. Netherlands, Portugal vs. France and more.
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Euro 2024 Picks, Predictions & Odds
| Portugal Odds | +240 |
| France Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +140 / -172 |
On the surface, France’s clash with Portugal looks like one of the tournament’s best defensive teams against one of the best attacking sides.
But while France’s defense is legitimate, a closer look at Portugal suggests some potential erosion within the squad.
Cristiano Ronaldo has looked increasingly frustrated while starting every single match for Roberto Martinez, reaching a new level with his dramatic penalty miss in extra time against Slovenia.
And despite a total xG of 7.8 amassed during the tournament, Portugal have created only two big chances — defined as chances with a 30% conversion rate or better — in the last 270 minutes of play not including extra time.
Given the stiffness of the opposition here, I’m landing on a wager on Portugal not to score at +180 odds and an implied 35.7% probability.
The xG numbers suggest those aren’t odds with value, but the context here does. And the bet has cashed five out of eight times in this tournament between these teams.
Pick: Portugal Team Total Under 0.5 (+180 via DraftKings)
| England Odds | +120 |
| Switzerland Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +158 / -194 |
Saturday’s quarterfinal between England and Switzerland features one of this tournament’s most consistent teams.
It’s not England.
It’s obvious watching England’s four matches and Switzerland’s four matches that it’s the Swiss who have the more fully formed idea of who they are.
Even England’s dramatic 2-1, extra-time win over Slovakia was far more about great players making great plays than some sort of collective growth.
Additionally, Switzerland are also unbeaten over 90 minutes in their last four matches in the Euro knockout stages, having been eliminated from the previous two tournaments on penalties.
The teams they faced? Italy, Spain, France and Poland.
So I’m playing the same bet I played on the Swiss in the last round, a draw, Switzerland no-bet-wager at +115 odds and an implied 46.5% probability that a match that doesn’t finish in Switzerland’s favor will finish level.
Pick: Draw, Switzerland No Bet (+117 via BetMGM)
| Netherlands Odds | -170 |
| Turkey Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +110 |
Turkey has ridden their luck, reaching this stage despite being outcreated in terms of expected goals in their last three matches. One of those games — a 2-1 win over Czechia — came despite playing most of the encounter up a man.
And the total is also probably skewing higher in part because of data that owes in part because of the opponents they’ve drawn.
Turkey and the Netherlands have both played Austria, one of only two teams at the tournament entering the quarters that have played multiple games with four or more total goals.
Turkey have also played Georgia, the other such team.
So I’m tying those leans together in a conservative wager that the Netherlands will at worst force extra time in a match with fewer than 3.5 goals at -145 and an implied 59.2% probability.
It has cashed only four of eight times between these teams’ tournament games. But that becomes four out of five when Austria and Georgia are removed from the equation.
