Euro 2024 continues on Tuesday, July 9 as we begin the semifinal stage.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's Spain – France and Netherlands – England games.
Euro 2024 Semifinal Match Projections
Spain – France, July 9 – 3 p.m. ET
Spain are 35.8% to win in 90 minutes and 51.1% to advance, per my projections. The projected total goals in this game is 2.16.
All of these numbers are in line with the market, so I will pass on the game.
Netherlands – England, July 10 – 3 p.m. ET
England are 40.3% to win in 90 minutes and 56.6% to advance, per my projections. My numbers are showing extremely thin value on England on the three-way moneyline at +160, but not enough to bet, and I show no value on advancement scenarios.
With the projected goal total at 2.08, my projections are in line with the market, so I will pass on this game as well.
