Spain vs France Odds, Spain – France Pick
| Spain Odds | +175 |
| France Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +187 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +162 / -200 |
Spain and France meet in Munich for a heavyweight clash in the Euro 2024 semifinals.
Spain got a 119th-minute goal against Germany to knockout the tournament hosts and they are now the favorite to win Euro 2024. Spain's match against Germany was the first time they have been tested by a team of their caliber in a long time and despite winning, they really weren't that impressive. They are dealing with a few key suspensions as well, so they really are vulnerable here against France.
France survived a full 120 minutes with Portugal and eventually won the match on penalties. They have shown throughout this tournament that even though it doesn't look pretty they are battle tested at major international tournaments and can progress in a multitude of ways. Spain will be the best team they have faced all tournament, but they also will be the best matchup for them as well.
Here is my Spain vs France pick.
Spain Picks
When Spain went ahead against Germany we saw what they are like trying to defend a lead against an elite opponent, and it wasn’t a pretty sight. Germany hadn’t even created 0.5 expected goals through the first 50 minutes and then by the time extra time was over they had created 2.1 expected goals. In the end, Germany had 45 touches in Spain’s penalty area and had completed a whopping nine crosses into the box. The problem for Spain is they have no elite box defenders and now that Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normad are both suspended it’s only going to make it worse.
So, Spain have a choice. They can play their normal style, control a majority of the possession, try to break down the best defensive team in this tournament and leave themselves vulnerable to direct counterattacking opportunities for the best transition team in world, or they can try what they did against Germany and hope that France don't find the back of the net.
Their decision in that regard will have a massive impact on the trajectory of the match.
France Picks
France have been flying kind of under the radar at these Euros and have gone through a monumental level of underperformance. They have not been able to score a goal themselves from non-penalty situations. What hasn’t been talked about enough though is how good they have been defensively.
France have not conceded a non-penalty goal and their opponents have only created 3.7 npxG in five matches, which is the lowest of anyone left in the tournament. Saliba and Upamecano have also proven to be the best center back pairing in this tournament because of their elite box defending and ball winning ability.
This is also the perfect type of match for them because Spain are going to control a majority of the ball. Every team in this tournament has basically not allowed France to hurt them in transition and has done everything possible to make sure when they lose the ball they have defensive cover or flat out let France build out of the back without much pressure.
Spain vs France
Prediction
I really do not think Spain should be the favorite here. Both teams are coming off extra time with no rest advantage, Spain are dealing with two crucial suspensions in their back line and quite frankly they are going to struggle to create high quality chances against the best defensive team in this tournament.
You combine that with the fact that to play their very best they are going to have to be aggressive when they are in possession and with their counter-pressing when they lose the ball, which is going to give France transitions to punish them. Otherwise, they have to play more passively out of possession, which was not pretty against Germany.
Since September of 2021, France have a +1.34 xGD per 90 minutes, while Spain are at +1.24. France have a significantly higher team transfer value compared to Spain, per transfermarkt.com, as well.
So, I really like the value on France to advance to the final at +110.
