Spain vs Georgia Odds, Spain – Georgia Picks
| Spain Odds | -500 |
| Georgia Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163o / +130u |
Let's dive into the Spain vs Georgia odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Sunday, July 30.
Spain looks to get past Georgia for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Spain was once of the most impressive teams during the group stage, winning all three of their matches in dominant fashion in what was supposed to be the group of death. Spain faced Georgia twice during qualifying and dominated them in both meetings.
In their first ever major international tournament, Georgia did the unthinkable and upset Portugal at 8/1 underdogs to make it to the knockout stage. Stories like this are what makes the Euros such a special tournament and while it's an amazing achievement, the clock is about to strike midnight for this underdog.
Spain Picks
Spain and Georgia meet again after facing off twice during qualifying and let’s just say neither match was particularly close.
The first match in Georgia, Spain won 7-1 and dominated Georgia in all areas of the pitch. Georgia tried to play a compact defensive structure, but Spain is the best team in the world at passing in tight spaces and opened them up easily for the first goal. After that, the dam broke and goals kept coming.
Spain is about the worst team in the world to play when you're trailing. They held over 70% of the ball in their two matches against Georgia and kept playing right through them in all areas of the pitch. That same thing can happen here again because as Georgia has shown in this tournament when they conceded over three expected goals to both Czechia and Turkey, they're not a team built to play aggressively out of possession.
Spain has one of the most balanced build up structures you will see with the aim and first and foremost creating overloads in the middle of the pitch. Yet, they are versatile and will look to get the ball out wide to their talented wingers to create chances via crosses as well. They've completed the second most crosses so far this tournament, so they're really set up well to thrash Georgia once again.
Georgia Picks
A theme with Georgia in this tournament is how brave they were against the three teams in their group by not just sitting back and trying to play attacking football. Well, that ended up with them allowing 7.9 expected goals during the group stage — by far the most of anyone in the tournament.
Good pressing teams will punish you if you aren’t good at building out of the back or don’t do it with regularity. Czechia forced 28 high recoveries, Portugal and Turkey both forced 18, so what do you think the best pressing side in this tournament is going to do?
That is exactly what led to multiple goals in that 7-1 thrashing in Georgia. Once they fell behind they kept trying to play out of the back and Spain ended up with 26 high recoveries, leading them to create 4.8 expected goals.
The other problem that Georgia had was because they were playing such a compact structure, it often left them in 1-v-1 situations out wide against Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams — both who consistently were beating Georgia’s fullbacks and creating chances.
Spain vs Georgia
Prediction
Spain dominating Georgia in both qualifying matches is not something we should gloss over. In both matches, Georgia came out with the most passive approach that they could do and still got ripped apart. So, if they are going to play as aggressively as they have been throughout this tournament that is only going to give Spain more space to operate while in possession.
While Georgia making it to the knockout stage is a nice story, they're the worst defensive team in this tournament. If they get into a negative game state here against Spain, things are going to get just as bad as they did in their previous two meetings in qualifying.
I have Spain’s spread projected at -2.15, so I like the value on them -2 at +110.
