Spain vs Germany Odds, Euro 2024 Predictions
| Spain Odds | +170 |
| Germany Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100o / -125u |
Let's dive into the Spain vs Germany odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Friday, July 5.
Germany and Spain meet for a heavyweight clash at Euro 2024 with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Germany dominated Denmark in their round of 16 match to set up this massive match with Spain. The tournament hosts have been incredibly dominant with Julian Naglesmann at the helm and look poised to make a deep run on home soil. He will have them set up in the best way possible against what has been the most impressive team of the Euros.
Spain routed Georgia 4-1 in what was their fourth straight win of the Euros. They have been the best team so far this tournament, winning all three of their matches by a combined score of nine to one and are starting to look like the dominant Spain teams from the early 2010s. However, they have not played a team even close to the level of Germany since the 2022 World Cup, so this will be a massive test for Luis de la Fuente's side.
Spain Picks
Spain have obviously looked outstanding throughout this tournament, but have they really played a team at the level of Germany and can they be successful at controlling a majority of the possession or give them problems when they try to build up?
Germany are likely going to sit in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-4 mid block trying to deny space through the middle. Spain have been fortunate to face three teams that sat fairly deep in Albania, Georgia and Italy, while the one team that actually played a mid to high block gave them some problems. Croatia did fall behind 3-0 quickly, so Spain dropped off and played more passively in the second half. What ended up happening was Croatia held 54% of the ball and created 2.1 expected goals.
Spain 3 : 0 Croatia
▪ Penbox shots: 8 – 10
▪ Deep completions: 7 – 11
▪ Buildup completion: 83.9% – 87.7%
▪ PPDA: 10.8 – 11.9
▪ High turnovers: 2 – 4 pic.twitter.com/a1UfdBeq6d— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) June 15, 2024
That was the first time since the 2008 Euro Final that they hadn’t held more than 50% of the ball. You could write it off and say Spain were up big so they naturally ceded control or it can give you a glimpse into what Spain are like when they don’t have a stranglehold on the ball.
Spain are the best counter-pressing team in this tournament – there is no doubt about that. But what happens if someone is able to break that press? Croatia did it a few times and it led to transition breaks where they created their best chances. There also hasn’t been a lot of ball winning in this Spain side, as they have the fifth-lowest ground duel win rate in this tournament.
Germany Picks
Germany have shown versatility in their attack throughout this tournament. They don’t need to beat teams by utilizing short passes through the middle. With Havertz and Musiala’s ability to drop deep and also move around the pitch pulling defenders out of position, they have played a lot of balls over the top of the last line of defense with a lot of success.
They have also proven that they can be a very successful direct counterattacking team. They have six fast break shots in this tournament so far, which is a really high number considering how passively all four teams they’ve played have been. Nobody has been able to exploit it yet, but Spain throughout qualifying were really vulnerable to long balls over the top. Germany without a doubt have the deep lying playmakers who can make those passes and the forwards to give Spain’s defense a lot of problems.
Germany have also shown themselves to be an elite out of possession side. They have only allowed 2.9 expected goals and only three shots with an xG rating over 0.20. The combination of Robert Andrich, Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rüdiger has made it incredibly difficult for teams to be successful at playing through the middle of getting anything from counterattacking opportunities.
Spain vs Germany
Prediction
These two played in the 2022 World Cup group stage and Germany outplayed Spain with a worse manager. That match ended 1-1 with Spain holding 64% possession, but Germany beat them on expected goals 1.3 to 0.6 and outshot them 11 to 7. That match closed with Spain as a slight +150 favorite.
We are now here at Euro 2024 at pretty much the exact same line as that World Cup. Are we really going to sit here and say Spain have gotten a lot better and Germany have gotten worse? Because the latter is not true. Germany have been way better under Naglesmann, so with home field advantage if like me you believe these two teams are equal, Germany should be +130, not an underdog.
I have Germany projected at -134 to advance, so I like the value on them at +100.
