The 2020 NFL Draft is finally underway, and our experts are here to walk you through how players' landing spots impact their fantasy football outlooks.
Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon will break down their initial reactions as skill position players are taken off the board, grading whether their fit is an upgrade or downgrade for their rookie year projections.
Latest updates will be listed first.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Fantasy Football Fit with Chiefs
Raybon: Stock Up
Whoa. Edwards-Helaire was my favorite RB in the draft, but even I didn’t have him going this early.
Historically speaking, sneaking into the first round bodes well for the LSU product: Over the past decade, 12 of the 16 RBs drafted in the first round have amassed 180 or more touches in their rookie season, with just fewer than half netting 250 or more. And three of the four RBs to go in the 30-32 range over that span have posted 980 or more scrimmage yards and six or more touchdowns in their rookie years: Doug Martin (1,926/12), Jahvid Best (1,042/6), and Sony Michel (981/6).
Edwards-Helaire is a Damien Williams injury away from massive Kareem Hunt-like upside, and head coach Andy Reid has shown the desire to preserve Williams at times during the regular season. Edwards-Helaire now gives him that luxury. It knocks Williams down into shaky middle-round territory and probably puts and end to the Darwin Thompson sleeper hype, though.
Koerner: Way Up
What a great landing spot! He lands on the most explosive offense in football that also needs a RB. This shoots him up into high- to mid-range RB2 for me.
Jordan Love Fantasy Football Fit with Packers
Koerner: Down
He's backing up Aaron Rodgers his rookie season.
Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy Football Fit with 49ers
Raybon: Stock Up
The Vikings or Packers would have been ideal — Aiyuk would have had a better chance to finish second in targets on both of those squads but will likely have to settle for third behind George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in San Francisco.
Still, Aiyuk’s path to a starting job is clear thanks to the departure of Emmanuel Sanders and the demise of Dante Pettis, and talent plus opportunity equals production.
Koerner: Stock Up
The 49ers didn't have a No. 2 WR after losing Sanders. It makes sense they took a wideout here and a deep threat in Aiyuk. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will dominate the targets, but Aiyuk should benefit from the attention they get and how often the 49ers run play action. He won't be a week-to-week option in standard league, but could be a good late-round target in best ball with this landing spot.
Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Fit with Vikings
Koerner: Neutral
Jefferson seemed likely to end up in Philly. That would have been the ideal offense to land in, but he would have had much stiffer competition for targets. However, in Minnesota, he should see opportunity right away in a run-heavy offense. It likely raises his floor but lowers his ceiling.
Raybon: Stock Up
Even tough Minnesota is a low-volume pass offense, they have a gigantic hole to fill after trading Buffalo Stefon Diggs, who went 64/1,120/6 on 94 targets last season. Only replacement-level talents such as Bisi Johnson and Tajae Sharpe populate the depth chart behind Adam Thielen at WR, and though second-year tight end Irv Smith could take a step forward, but his per-route numbers — 15.4% target percentage and 1.02 yards per route run, 38th of 44 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus — are predictive indicators working against him. Jefferson has the chance to be the most productive rookie WR of 2020.
Jalen Reagor Fantasy Football Fit with Eagles
Koerner: Upgrade
Reagor lands on a high-octane passing offense in Philly. However, he will have to compete for targets with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert.
I'm calling this an upgrade because Reagor was likely drafted to be the long-term D-Jax replacement. His upside will be unlocked if D-Jax were to miss any time this season. Given his age and recent injury woes, that seems likely.
Raybon: Downgrade
I'm bearish on this move. For one, the Eagles may have passed on a better player in Justin Jefferson, and they don’t exactly have the greatest track record with WRs after the JJ Arcega-Whiteside disaster last year — and he’s still there, by the way.
If Alshon Jeffery is traded, the Reagor gets an upgrade. But in the immediate future, Reagor would be behind Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders for targets.
CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Fit with Cowboys
Koerner: Stock Up
I didn't expect Lamb to fall to the Cowboys, so this is a bit tricky.
The Cowboys certainly aren't hurting at WR with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, but their offense is a great landing spot for Lamb. They run 3-wide most plays, so Lamb should be able to see the 70-90% snap percentage Randall Cobb saw last season.
I would say this landing spot raises Lamb's ceiling a bit, considering he would be in the WR2 discussion anytime Cooper or Gallup were to miss any time this year. His floor may be a bit lower given there may be some weeks he may only see a few targets. Any other landing spot he would have been a top-two target.
Raybon: Stock Up
Lamb doesn’t get the chance to be a No. 1 WR, but he also goes to an explosive offense: Dak Prescott finished second in the league with 4,902 passing yards and fourth with 30 touchdowns, and with Randall Cobb and Jason Witten are gone, so there could be enough love to go around. And thought Lamb won’t be a true No. 1, he will benefit from less double teams, as defenses have to account for Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup — not to mention Ezekiel Elliott.
Just as Gallup often produced similar value to Cooper, it’s not hard to see Lamb finishing as Dallas’ top WR of the week four to six times this season, With Cobb gone and only Blake Jarwin atop the TE depth chart, Lamb could be an every down player from Day 1.
Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Football Fit with Broncos
Raybon: Stock Down
Denver had a big need at WR2, but that’s just it: WR2 … not WR1. Juedy’s chances of being the WR1 were better with the Raiders and Jets, so I don’t love this landing spot for his immediate fantasy prospects.
The Broncos have an unproven QB in Drew Lock and a target-hogging No. 1 WR in Courtland Sutton, plus a RB in Melvin Gordon who could easily command four to six targets per game and what could be a low-volume pass offense to begin with. The Broncos got nice value with this pick, and their offense got better, no doubt, but Jeudy would have had more upside going to a team without a true No. 1 WR.
Koerner: Neutral
When it comes to updating a wide receiver's stock based on landing spot, I look at the passing offense they land in along with team need at the position. It's clear the Broncos needed a No. 2 WR to pair with Courtland Sutton, but this offense is sub-optimal considering the developing QB, the defensive-minded head coach and balanced offense they run.
Jeudy improves the Broncos offense much more than the landing spot helps his fantasy stock.
Henry Ruggs Fantasy Football Fit with Raiders
Raybon: Stock Up
Compared to the Jets, 49ers and Broncos, the Raiders are the ideal landing spot.
I’ve been critical of Derek Carr in the past, but he finished in the top-10 in adjusted net yards per attempt in 2019 — he's a tier ahead of Sam Darnold and Drew Lock. The 49ers, meanwhile, can go a whole game without passing 15 times.
Jon Gruden showed with Josh Jacobs that he is willing to give his first-round skill picks a major role in the offense, and taking Ruggs over more conventional true No. 1 WRs was a major vote of confidence. Tyrell Williams was the nominal No. 1 WR last season and Hunter Renfrow will be a reliable third-down threat, but Ruggs has a chance to slot in second in targets behind Darren Waller.
Koerner: Neutral
The Raiders took a "gamble" by drafting Ruggs as the first WR off the board.
He didn't end up on the Jets, which is good, but I felt like SF would be the better fit. Either way, the Raiders know he's not just a deep threat, they will draw up plays that involve Carr getting him the ball early and let him work his magic after the catch.
This helps boost his floor, but lowers his ceiling. Overall, this is a neutral landing spot for him.
Justin Herbert Fantasy Football Fit with Chargers
Koerner: Stock Up
This is a dream landing spot for the rookie QB. He gets Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler at his disposal.
Raybon: Slightly Up
Herbert will be surrounded by plus-skill position talent, but Tyrod Taylor could be a pesky thorn in his side if he doesn’t wow early. The Chargers are a veteran team with a strong defense that could stubbornly stick with the safe choice in Taylor longer than they should. Still, LA is a better landing spot than Miami, all things considered.
Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Fit with Dolphins
Koerner: Stock Down
The Chargers were going to draft either Tua or Justin Herbert, depending on who the Dolphins picked here. I would consider this a downgrade since having Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler as your pass-catchers would be an above-average situation for a rookie.
Raybon: Stock Down
I love Tua’s talent, but the Dolphins aren’t in win-now mode and can afford to sit Tua as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is on the roster. The Dolphins still have a lot of pick ammo, but as it stands, they are not as talented at the skill positions on offense as the Chargers.
If he ends up winning the job in preseason, is upside is similar to Burrow’s, though.
Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Fit with Bengals
Koerner: No change
No surprise here. Burrow is the only player we have known, for some time, which team would draft him. Therefore my QB22 ranking for him doesn't change.
It's a great landing spot considering the weapons he has in A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and John Ross. Burrow also has two great pass-catching backs in Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard.
Raybon: Stock Up
I’m probably going to have Burrow sneak just inside my top 20. If you’re drafting a late-round or second QB, upside is the name of the game, and the unknown is more intriguing than many of the known quantities.
Burrow has an offensive guru in Zac Taylor and the Bengals are low-key loaded at WR. It wouldn’t surprise me if Burrow is the late-round QB league winner of 2020. I love the high end of his range of outcomes.
Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Football Rankings
You'll find our experts' consensus top 150 players based on half-point PPR scoring in the table below, but you can also sort the rankings by each of their initials.
- SK: Sean Koerner is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics and has been the No. 1 in-season FantasyPros ranker for three of the past five seasons.
- CR: Chris Raybon is a co-host of The Action Network's Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio show and was the fourth-most accurate FantasyPros ranker in 2019. He's watched every NFL snap since 2010.
- MF: Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs (part of The Action Network) and co-host of The Action Network's Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio show.
