Bye weeks have arrived for NFL Week 5, which means the weekly grind of fantasy football truly begins.
As always, this article will assist you in making the best decisions possible heading into Thursday night without the benefit of complete information regarding Sunday’s slate. Thursday Night Football — Bears vs. Commanders — features a pair of defenses everyone should be looking to attack.
Out of the eight combined games these teams have played, only once has their opponent been limited to fewer than 27 points. The Commanders have given up 30+ points in each of their last three contests, while the Bears have surrendered a remarkable 25+ in 14 straight games dating back to last season.
Chicago ranks 31st on defense in both yards per play allowed and DVOA. The opposition's lead running back has topped 80 total yards and found the end zone in each of their four games thus far.
Brian Robinson Jr. has averaged 19 touches per game in the three games that Washington has not faced a near insurmountable deficit. He is a must start as a strong RB2 play.
To make matters worse, the Bears are dealing with injuries in the secondary. Their two best players on the back end, Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson, will miss this game, while safety Jaquan Brisker is hobbled by a hamstring. The only marquee wide receiver this defensive backfield has gone up against is Mike Evans, who torched them for 171 yards and a score on only eight targets. As such, Terry McLaurin is also a must start.
Let’s dive into the rest of the skill players you may be considering in Bears vs. Commanders.
Bears Week 5 Start/Sit
Justin Fields
There is a good chance you missed out on Fields’ best game of the season due to frustration over his extremely slow start over the first three weeks. Regardless, the context of his performance last week is difficult to weigh, considering it was against the only defense rated lower than the Bears' (Broncos).
Coming off what may have been the best passing performance of his career, I lean toward riding the wave of optimism against a Commanders defense that ranks 22nd in yards per attempt and 25th in yards per completion.
Washington’s front seven is 30th in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, and in turn its opponents have felt comfortable letting the long ball fly with a 15.3% deep-ball throw rate, which is the second most in the league.
If Fields has time to attack downfield, both the explosive pass and explosive run may be available. There are only a half-dozen QBs I would undoubtedly start over Fields, and I’d play him in a 4-point TD pass league over the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow.
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
With Washington grading out above average against the run — in a game the Bears are listed as near-touchdown underdogs — it’s hard to feel confident in either Bears back.
The Commanders are allowing only 2.13 yards after contact per attempt, which is sixth in the NFL. The running lanes for Herbert won’t be nearly as easy to come by — Denver is 31st in rush defense DVOA; Washington is ninth.
With Chicago leading for most of its Week 4 game, Herbert was the clear lead dog, outsnapping (56 vs. 16) and getting more touches (22 vs. 6) than Johnson. Game script will likely be the deciding factor in which Bears running back sees the bulk of the work in the second half.
Herbert is still in play as an RB2 as all four teams on bye have a starting-caliber fantasy RB.
Johnson is more of a desperation flex in which you’ll likely need the Bears to fall behind like they did in the first three weeks of the season.
DJ Moore
Moore is one of only nine receivers with a first-read target share above 30% and air yardage share greater than 40%. In fact, the only receivers in the league who have better usage than Moore when combining these metrics are Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Davante Adams.
With a 1,200-yard, nine-TD pace through four games, Moore is locked in as a WR2 in your fantasy lineup against the defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
Cole Kmet
Kmet came alive last week, scoring twice and once again proving that when Fields is successful, he is a major catalyst. Kmet is fourth in the league in tight end target share at 20.7%.
This season, it can be deemed a success if your tight end finishes with 4-5 receptions in a game. Kmet has reached that mark in three of his four games, and now has three multi-TD games in his last 13 games played. In total, Kmet has reached the end zone nine times over his last 14 games — only a handful of players at the position can get close to matching that number.
I would play him over the likes of Waller, Goedert and Jake Ferguson. With the ability to reach spike-week potential and a relatively high floor in relation to the other tight ends in fantasy football, Kmet has earned a starting role as a back-end TE1.
Commanders Week 5 Start / Sit
Sam Howell
Howell is one of the better streaming options if you usually count on Justin Herbert, Geno Smith or Deshaun Watson as your starter.
As mentioned, not only is the pass defense of the Bears even weaker than usual due to injury, but they rank 31st in both yards per attempt allowed (8.6) and touchdown rate against (7.9%).
The concern with Howell as an every week fantasy start is his propensity to take sacks. That shouldn’t be an issue as Chicago averages only one total sack and turnover forced combined on per game basis.
Howell provides a high floor this week for a streamer. I feel confident starting him as a top-12 option this week.
Antonio Gibson
Despite playing 30 snaps per game, Gibson’s season high in opportunities (carries + targets) is seven.
Even in a good matchup for receiving backs, Gibson can no longer be counted on as the flex play he was drafted to be over the course of the summer.
With Gibson getting none of the work inside the five, he shouldn’t be starting in any format.
Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel
Dotson has been surprisingly inefficient thus far, turning 25 targets into a mere 110 yards. He’s still been involved in 86% of routes this season, but last week that dipped to 73% due to a nagging ankle injury.
Samuel may also be playing at less than 100%. On the season, he has only run a route on 68% of Howell’s dropbacks, and at this point of his career, is more of a gimmick receiver.
One factor holding both of these players back is their low average depth of target — Samuel’s aDOT is 6.3 while Dotson’s is only 8.1, which is down in a big way from 2022 (15.2).
On a short week, with health questions, and uninspiring usage down the field, it is best to keep both Commanders wideouts on the bench for another week.
If desperate, Dotson is still the preferred dart throw.
