The extra out-of-conference game for the Bills and Bucs will take place on Thursday Night Football in an intriguing matchup of teams trying to right the ship.
Buffalo has lost two of its last three games, while Tampa Bay has dropped three of its last four. Through seven weeks, the Buccaneers and Bills mirror each other in their respective conference standings — both sit in second place in their division and occupy the last Wild Card spot as the seventh seed.
While the Bills have run into a few speed bumps, Josh Allen is still the top quarterback in fantasy football. Allen has struggled with turnovers, but his down-to-down efficiency has been the best of his career to date. His completion percentage is north of 70%, with the fifth-best completion percentage over expectation in the NFL.
Team have had success blitzing Allen this year. The Patriots sent pressure on 43.5% of the Bills' dropbacks last week. Allen completed only 52% of his passes against the blitz, whereas he completed 77% of his throws when New England only rushed four or fewer defenders. This is important to note because the Buccaneers are blitz happy, ranking fourth in the league.
The total for this game sits at a lowly 42.5. It’s the lowest over/under for any game the Bills have played this season. Obviously, this is the byproduct of a Bucs team that has only seen one of their games exceed the posted total this season, with an average total score of 34.5 — the lowest in the NFL.
On a short week, we may once again see a more grinding style than we are accustomed to with Bills games. Neither defense is elite, but both rank inside the top 15 in pass defense and rush defense DVOA. Temper your expectations when considering flex-worthy players.
The NFL schedule in Week 8 oddly lacks any bye weeks. For this reason, I only consider Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans as the players worthy of starting without any reservations whatsoever.
Let’s dive into the rest of the skill players in Buccaneers vs. Bills to help you make the best fantasy decisions possible.
Buccaneers Week 8 start/sit
Rachaad White
White’s efficiency as a runner has been abysmal, but it's not entirely his fault.
The Bucs are last in adjusted line yards per rush, according to FTN data. White's 3.2 yards per carry is the second worst out of all rushers ranked in the top 24 of fantasy RBs. The only running back with a worse YPC mark is Rhamondre Stevenson, who just so happened to face the Bills on Sunday.
Stevenson didn’t rush for greater than four yards per carry, but he finished the game with double-digit fantasy points due to his receiving work, which is also an area in which White thrives. Ezekiel Elliott found the end zone against this Bills defense as well, which gives me even more optimism about starting White. He has also handled 75% of the Bucs’ RB work inside the 5-yard line.
From Weeks 1-4, the Bills defense ranked second with a -26.1% DVOA. In Weeks 5-7, their defensive DVOA is 16.9% (28th).
Keep White in your lineup as a RB2 or a flex against a reeling Bills defense.
Chris Godwin
Godwin hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, which may be adding to apprehension with starting him week after week. He does have a 23.4% target share, which bests Mike Evans (22.9%). Godwin trails Evans by only one end-zone target as well, so we should be getting some positive regression from the Bucs' best weapon over the middle of the field.
With 30 targets over the last three weeks and a floor of six receptions per game, Godwin is a strong WR3 play with upside if the Bucs are trailing in the second half.
Considering that both Bills starting corners rank outside the top 50 in PFF grade, this isn’t the time to bench Godwin.
Bills Week 8 start / sit
James Cook
Despite an up-and-down season, Cook still profiles as a mid-range RB2. He's paid off his draft season price tag, and I believe there is reason for optimism moving forward.
Cook garnered 16 opportunities last week on 37 snaps while Latavius Murray had only six carries and targets on 32 snaps. The 72.7% backfield share was the highest workload for Cook this season. For all the discourse of whether he can secure the bulk of the RB workload for the Bills, Cook's 4.76 yards per carry ranks sixth in the league (out of backs with at least 60 carries).
The Bills offensive line ranks third in adjusted line yards as they create 4.45 yards per rush on average. Over the last two weeks, it's felt like Buffalo has been searching for a second playmaker outside of Stefon Diggs.
Cook has bounced back from a few troubling performances and I recommend riding him again in a game where Buffalo is more than a touchdown home favorite.
Gabe Davis
Two weeks ago, Davis was unlikely to find himself being addressed in a start/sit column. He was the overall WR12 in half-PPR and found the end zone in four straight games heading into Week 6. But over the last two games, Davis has only reeled in four of his nine targets for 27 yards.
The Bucs defense doesn't seem too interested in shutting down the opposition's WR1. Justin Jefferson had 150 yards, A.J. Brown had 131, DJ Moore had 104 and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 132. The highest yardage total for any secondary receiver against Tampa occurred back in Week 1, when Jordan Addison had 61 yards. Josh Allen shouldn't have to look much further than Stefon Diggs on Thursday night.
Davis is a volatile WR3 and he is outside my top 35 WRs given the position is fully stocked without byes. I would opt for high-floor players like Tyler Lockett or Diontae Johnson. In leagues where you can start three WRs and a flex, Davis will likely find his way into many lineups unless you are deep at running back.
Dalton Kincaid
Dawson Knox is going to miss some time with an injury, which should open up an even greater opportunity share for the rookie tight end.
Kincaid had his best game of his young career last week, catching all eight of his targets for 75 yards. He has yet to see a single target 20 yards down the field, but in a year where the position is extremely weak, we are simply looking for opportunity with the occasional red-zone target.
Kincaid has an absurdly low air yards per target mark of 4.6, with an equally astonishing 96.2% catch rate. He is better in full-PPR formats due to the sheer number of targets and short receptions he could receive in the coming weeks.
While I am not rushing to get him into lineups against a Bucs defense that limited T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta and Dallas Goedert to fewer than 45 yards receiving, Kincaid is absolutely in play as a top-12 tight end moving forward.
