Obviously, we shouldn't overreact to preseason or training camp too much. Once these players start seeing live action, though, it would be silly to just downright ignore it.
Therefore, I'm highlighting players whose projections I adjusted in my 2022 rankings, which can be found here.
Fantasy Football Stock Report
Players Trending Upward
Gabriel Davis
I’m not sure how many more times I need to say this: Gabriel Davis is really good.
GABE DAVIS 🔥 pic.twitter.com/wjsC8SQZha
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) August 20, 2022
Davis is primed for a Year 3 breakout as Josh Allen’s No. 2 target heading into the 2022 season. His current ADP of WR27 will look like a steal at the end of the season.
I remember targeting Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay and Calvin Ridley in the WR20-25 range the year they erupted. I view Davis in the same vein.
Nico Collins
Collins looks set to be Houston’s No. 2 WR. The Texans should end up in plenty of pass-happy game scripts, which gives Collins sneaky upside and a great late-round flier as a potential Year 2 breakout candidate. He is a big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds and could be Davis Mills’ preferred red-zone target. I was at the Texans-Rams game with the NFL team at Action and was fortunate enough to see him flash his contested-catch ability on this 18-yard touchdown grab:
Nico Collins is a major sleeper 👀 pic.twitter.com/27hNTErp4t
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 20, 2022
Isaiah Likely
Likely makes it into the stock UP section for the second straight week. It looks like the Ravens got a steal with him in the fourth round of the NFL Draft as he’s polished enough to have a major role as soon as Week 1. Obviously, he’s backing up one of the top tight ends in the league in Mark Andrews, but the Ravens will need to find a way to get him on the field. Considering how weak the Ravens’ receiver room is outside of Rashod Bateman, I can see them using Likely as a slot WR/TE hybrid in the same mold as Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki and Brevin Jordan. He’s worth a flier in deeper Best Ball formats with a premium on tight ends.
Dameon Pierce
Pierce was one of the players I was most excited to see in person at the Texans-Rams game. However, he was held out of action, likely because the Texans already view him as a key starter and did not want to risk injury. He is moving up my rankings as he’s trending to be the Texans' Week 1 starter and potential workhorse.
Baker Mayfield
A couple of things went in Mayfield’s favor this week. First, he was named the Panthers’ Week 1 starter. The fact that they announced their decision this early bodes well for his job security going forward. Rookie Matt Corral, unfortunately, suffered a season-ending injury and will have to redshirt his rookie year. There was a chance that if the Panthers were out of the playoff hunt towards the end of the season, they would have given Corral some starts in order to evaluate for 2023 and beyond. With that scenario eliminated, the odds of Mayfield starting all 17 games for Carolina increase dramatically (if healthy).
Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has made a significant push to become the No. 2 running back in Pittsburgh. He still has to beat out Benny Snell, but there is a chance Warren ends up being the cheapest handcuff in fantasy football. Warren’s fantasy prospects remain limited as the backup to Najee Harris. That being said, if Harris were to miss time, Warren could potentially provide RB3/Flex value. He’s worth taking a flier on late in deeper leagues.
Players Trending Downward
Ronald Jones
Ronald Jones didn’t see a single snap with the starting unit in the Chiefs’ Week 2 preseason game, his lone contribution being a single reception for three yards in the second half. That is not the type of usage you would expect from a veteran like Jones or a player who is a lock to make the team. There is a very real chance Jones does not make the 53-man roster. Both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco's stock go up a bit with this development, not to mention the recent news that Derrick Gore was placed on the season-ending IR.
Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson returned the opening kickoff, only to watch Brian Robinson Jr. get the start at running back. It’s the latest development that has caused me to lower Gibson’s projections enough to RB27. His ADP in recent drafts has been RB23, so the market seems to be reacting slowly to the blatant red flags. If he were to fall outside of the Top 30, that would be the time to “buy low” as he’d be a Robinson injury away from becoming an every week mid-range RB2.
Kenneth Walker
I was already down on Walker’s fantasy outlook, but a recent hernia injury has put his Week 1 availability in doubt. I expect his ADP to plummet over the next couple of weeks, but he could be a sneaky stash if he falls outside of the Top 40. He isn’t a player you should have been drafting to be in your starting lineup in Week 1, anyway, but he has RB2/Flex upside if Rashaad Penny misses time.
Isaiah Spiller
I was never a fan of drafting Spiller in the RB40-45 range as his fantasy value is reliant on Austin Ekeler sustaining an injury. And even then, he isn’t a slam dunk to offer RB3/Flex value. It sounds like he is still battling Joshua Kelley for the No. 2 role. To make matters worse, it looks like Spiller is now dealing with an ankle injury that may keep him out for the next couple of weeks.
If you’ve read my RB Upside Ratings, you already know that targeting Alexander Mattison in the RB 40-45 range is the way to go.
