Go To Sean Koerner's Updated Week 10 Tiers
If you want to contend for your fantasy football championship, you have to be diligent about in-season management. And a big part of that is making start/sit decisions.
To help you start strategizing for Week 10, I've outlined the early version of my fantasy football rankings into tiers so you can better visualize the drop-off in expected production at each position.
As always, there will be a ton of volatility in how I adjust my rankings up until kickoff, so be sure to check my updated rankings before making final decisions. I'll also publish an updated version of these tiers before Sunday's kickoff, but for now, let's dive into the initial version of my Week 10 tiers!
Fantasy Rankings & Tiers
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Kyler Murray (vs. BUF)
Kyler Murray has essentially become "2019 Lamar Jackson" over the past few weeks.
Murray has rushed for 75 or more yards and/or a touchdown in all eight games this season. He's become a fantasy cheat code over the past two by adding 280-plus passing yards and three touchdowns through the air. A lot of that passing improvement has to do with Christian Kirk stepping up as Murray's No. 2 wide receiver: Kirk has posted receiving lines of 2/86/2, 5/37/2 and 5/123/1 over the past three games.
It's going to be impossible for defenses to slow down Murray if he, DeAndre Hopkins and Kirk are all playing at a high level.
Tier 2
Josh Allen (@ ARI)
Russell Wilson (@ LAR)
Deshaun Watson (@ CLE)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. JAX)
Bills-Cardinals has the highest total of the week at 56 (compare real-time odds here), which means that we can expect plenty of fantasy goodness to come out of it, and Allen carries the highest ceiling of any quarterback not named Murray this week.
Rodgers is the safest bet of Week 10. He should have no issues moving the ball against the tanking Jaguars, but the question is how long he'll have his foot on the gas if it turns into a blowout.
Rodgers' ceiling will be capped in this matchup, and it would not surprise me if we see Jordan Love play a handful of snaps in the fourth quarter. In a sense, that would be a sneaky way for the Packers to get "angry" Rodgers to show up for their Week 11 matchup at Indy.
Tier 3
Lamar Jackson (@ NE)
Jackson continues to frustrate his owners with low-end QB1 production. He should break out of his funk as a passer, but expecting him to return anywhere near his 2019 form seems like a pipe dream.
Tier 4
Jared Goff (vs. SEA)
Drew Brees (vs. SF)
Tom Brady (@ CAR)
Justin Herbert (@ MIA)
Carson Wentz (@ NYG)
Goff is coming off a disastrous four-turnover game against the Dolphins, but he should bounce back against a Seahawks defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Rams have scored a median of 22 points and have a team total of 28.5 for Week 10 — the enhanced scoring environment gives Goff's TD projection a considerable boost in my model.
Brady is coming off arguably the worst game of his career. It was an embarrassing 38-3 loss on Monday Night Football, during which he threw three interceptions. My colleague Chris Raybon has pointed out that Brady has been on a strict 8:30 p.m. bedtime, which could be impacting his performance in primetime games. I can buy into that having at least some impact on his horrendous Monday night showing, but I'm betting on the GOAT to bounce back against the Panthers.
Tier 5
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CIN)
Derek Carr (vs. DEN)
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LAC)
Big Ben has landed on the COVID-19 list as a precautionary measure. He has yet to test positive but was sitting next to Vance McDonald (who has tested positive) on their plane ride from Dallas back to Pittsburgh.
There's a chance Big Ben will be able to suit up this Sunday, but we are in wait-and-see mode.
Tier 6
Drew Lock (@ LV)
Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS)
Ryan Tannehill (vs. IND)
Teddy Bridgewater (vs. TB)
Lock is starting to heat up and is a potential streaming option this week. His confidence appears to be growing, and it's starting to show up in the box score.
Meanwhile, Stafford is a game-time decision with a concussion. His absence will have a ripple effect on all Lions players, so be sure to check my updated tiers on Saturday to see how it all shakes out.
Tier 7
Joe Burrow (@ PIT)
Nick Foles (vs. MIN)
Philip Rivers (@ TEN)
Daniel Jones (vs. PHI)
Cam Newton (vs. BAL)
Jake Luton (@ GB)
Burrow won't have much time to throw against a Steelers defense that has generated the league's highest pressure rate. He's a sit this week.
Tier 8
Alex Smith (@ DET)
Kirk Cousins (@ CHI)
Nick Mullens (@ NO)
Cousins has taken a bit of a back seat as Dalvin Cook has been the Vikings offense of late. Cousins is a sit this week against a stingy Bears defense.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Dalvin Cook (@ CHI)
Alvin Kamara (vs. SF)
Cook is playing out of his mind right now, totaling 163 and 206 rushing yards in his past two games. He does face a tough test against the Bears, but he has the talent to overcome any matchup.
Tier 2
Aaron Jones (vs. JAX)
Jones was expected to be limited on Thursday Night Football last week, but appeared fully healthy. We could see a ceiling game from him against the Jaguars as this game script sets up perfectly for him.
Tier 3
Chase Edmonds (vs. BUF)
Mike Davis (vs. TB)
Josh Jacobs (vs. DEN)
Derrick Henry (vs. IND)
James Robinson (@ GB)
James Conner (vs. CIN)
Edmonds failed to meet the lofty expectations I had for him last week, but he still ended up seeing 25 carries and ran a route on 75% of dropbacks, which is enough usage for him to post RB1 overall numbers on any given week.
Davis is back to high-end RB1 status with Christian McCaffrey out again, this time with a shoulder injury.
Tier 4
Miles Sanders (@ NYG)
Kareem Hunt (vs. HOU)
David Montgomery (vs. MIN)
D'Andre Swift (vs. WAS)
Hunt's value takes a bit of a hit if Nick Chubb can return from his knee injury. If Chubb ends up being held out, Hunt will be a top-five option against a Texans defense that allows the third-highest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Tier 5
Nick Chubb (vs. HOU)
Joe Mixon (@ PIT)
Antonio Gibson (@ DET)
Jerick McKinnon (@ NO)
Leonard Fournette (@ CAR)
The Bucs backfield continues to be a nightmare trying to project. Fournette took a backseat to Ronald Jones and didn't enter last week's game until the second quarter, when the Bucs were down 28-0. Fournette has been the team's primary pass-catching back and has averaged a 60% routes run per dropback rate over the past three games.
Both backs are low-end RB2 plays.
Tier 6
Darrell Henderson (vs. SEA)
Melvin Gordon (@ LV)
Ronald Jones II (@ CAR)
David Johnson (@ CLE)
Jonathan Taylor (@ TEN)
Zack Moss (@ ARI)
Chris Carson (@ LAR)
J.K. Dobbins (@ NE)
Moss is the more valuable Bills running back moving forward. He appears to be the favorite for carries, with Devin Singletary getting slightly more work in the passing game. Moss is also likely to get most goal-line work, making him an RB2/3 option with upside for more if Singletary were ever to miss time.
Tier 7
Duke Johnson Jr. (@ CLE)
J.D. McKissic (@ DET)
Devin Singletary (@ ARI)
Malcolm Brown (vs. SEA)
Jamaal Williams (vs. JAX)
Mike Davis (vs. TB)
Phillip Lindsay (@ LV)
Latavius Murray (vs. SF)
Duke Johnson is a must-own right now — there's a real chance that David Johnson ends up missing Week 10, and we could see Duke become the feature back.
Former head coach Bill O'Brien always seemed reluctant to use Duke as a lead back, but the new regime realizes he would be able to handle a full workload. He could end up in the Tier 5 range if DJ misses this week.
Tier 8
Kalen Ballage (@ MIA)
Jordan Wilkins (@ TEN)
Joshua Kelley (@ MIA)
Mark Ingram (@ NE)
Wayne Gallman (vs. PHI)
Adrian Peterson (vs. WAS)
Nyheim Hines (@ TEN)
JaMycal Hasty (@ NO)
Ballage was a pleasant surprise in Week 9 with 15 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He has RB2 potential if Justin Jackson and Troymaine Pope are out again this week. The Chargers RB situation should have more clarity on coming Saturday and will be reflected in my updated tiers then.
Tier 9
James White (vs. BAL)
Damien Harris (vs. BAL)
Jordan Howard (vs. LAC)
Giovani Bernard (@ PIT)
Alexander Mattison (@ CHI)
Rex Burkhead (vs. BAL)
Salvon Ahmed (vs. LAC)
DeeJay Dallas (@ LAR)
Tier 10
Justin Jackson (@ MIA)
Gus Edwards (@ NE)
Boston Scott (@ NYG)
Troymaine Pope (@ MIA)
Chris Thompson (@ GB)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Davante Adams (vs. JAX)
Tier 2
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. BUF)
D.K. Metcalf (@ LAR)
Stefon Diggs (@ ARI)
Tier 3
Keenan Allen (@ MIA)
Cooper Kupp (vs. SEA)
Tyler Lockett (@ LAR)
Robby Anderson (vs. TB)
Terry McLaurin (@ DET)
Allen Robinson (vs. MIN)
Michael Thomas (vs. SF)
A.J. Brown (vs. IND)
Robert Woods (vs. SEA)
Kupp posted an 11/110/0 (off 19 targets) against the Dolphins in Week 9. He should keep it rolling against a Seahawks defense that's allowed 17 different wide receivers to post 70 or more yards this season. Kupp has gone scoreless in four straight games, but he should be able to find pay dirt in a game in which the Rams have an enhanced team total of 28.5.
Tier 4
Adam Thielen (@ CHI)
Will Fuller V (@ CLE)
DeVante Parker (vs. LAC)
Brandin Cooks (@ CLE)
Juju Smith-Schuster (vs. CIN)
Chase Claypool (vs. CIN)
D.J. Chark (@ GB)
Tyler Boyd (@ PIT)
Jarvis Landry (vs. HOU)
Claypool and Smith-Schuster will see a significant downgrade if Big Ben is unable to suit up this week — there's no way Mason Rudolph would support all three wide receivers and Eric Ebron for fantasy purposes. The Steelers would likely lean on their defense and operate a very conservative run-heavy offense if Roethlisberger is out. Start planning on backup options at WR if this ends up being the case.
Tier 5
Kenny Golladay (vs. WAS)
Justin Jefferson (@ CHI)
Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN)
Mike Evans (@ CAR)
Travis Fulgham (@ NYG)
Tee Higgins (@ PIT)
Curtis Samuel (vs. TB)
Jerry Jeudy (@ LV)
Christian Kirk (vs. BUF)
D.J. Moore (vs. TB)
Travis Fulgham has played like a true #1 WR over the past several weeks and will remain one of Wentz's top targets going forward. However, with Jalen Reagor & Dallas Goedert likely playing at full health this week, they could eat into his target share enough to lower him to WR3 range. Alshon Jeffery could also return this week and further complicate things.
Tier 6
Jakobi Meyers (vs. BAL)
Chris Godwin (@ CAR)
John Brown (@ ARI)
Corey Davis (vs. IND)
Marquise Brown (@ NE)
Brandon Aiyuk (@ NO)
Sterling Shepard (vs. PHI)
Marvin Jones (vs. WAS)
Mike Williams (@ MIA)
Antonio Brown (@ CAR)
Emmanuel Sanders (vs. SF)
Meyers was popping in my model heading into Week 9, and he ended up posting a massive 12/169/0 line on Monday Night Football. If N'Keal Harry ends up missing his third straight game, expect Meyers to shoot up my rankings even more.
Meyers is once again popping in my model due to the lack of competition for targets right now. He's running a route on 100% of pass plays, and Cam Newton doesn't have anyone else to throw to — last week's game wasn't as fluky as people think.
Tier 7
Deebo Samuel (@ NO)
K.J. Hamler (@ LV) (+)
T.Y. Hilton (@ TEN)
Cole Beasley (@ ARI) (-)
Tim Patrick (@ LV)
A.J. Green (@ PIT)
Darius Slayton (vs. PHI) (+)
Randall Cobb (@ CLE)
Darnell Mooney (vs. MIN) (+)
Tier 8
Zach Pascal (@ TEN)
Jalen Reagor (@ NYG) (+)
Anthony Miller (vs. MIN)
Henry Ruggs (vs. DEN) (+)
Danny Amendola (vs. WAS)
Josh Reynolds (vs. SEA)
Jakeem Grant (vs. LAC)
Michael Pittman Jr. (@ TEN) (+)
Nelson Agholor (vs. DEN)
Rashard Higgins (vs. HOU)
Keelan Cole (@ GB)
Larry Fitzgerald (vs. BUF)
Damiere Byrd (vs. BAL)
Chris Conley (@ GB)
Hunter Renfrow (vs. DEN) (-)
Laviska Shenault (@ GB)
Greg Ward Jr. (@ NYG)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. JAX) (+)
(+) = Higher ceiling
(-) = Higher floor
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Darren Waller (vs. DEN)
No Travis Kelce or George Kittle this week, which means Waller gets Tier 1 all to himself.
Tier 2
Noah Fant (@ LV)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. WAS)
Albert Okwuegbunam suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season, so Fant's role should only grow as a result and is my No. 2 TE this week. He's questionable with an ankle injury that he's been dealing with for weeks now, though, so we'll want to double-check his status on Sunday before locking him in.
Tier 3
Mark Andrews (@ NE)
Dallas Goedert (@ NYG)
Evan Engram (vs. PHI)
Rob Gronkowski (@ CAR)
Hunter Henry (@ MIA)
Jared Cook (vs. SF)
Jimmy Graham (vs. MIN)
Eric Ebron (vs. CIN)
Austin Hooper (vs. HOU)
Jonnu Smith (vs. IND)
Goedert was quiet in his Week 9 return with just one catch for 15 yards. He ran a route on 74% of dropbacks and should be closer to 100% health after the bye week.
Zach Ertz remains out of the lineup, which gives Goedert top-five upside this week.
Tier 4
Mike Gesicki (vs. LAC)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (vs. JAX)
Tier 5
Gerald Everett (vs. SEA)
Trey Burton (@ TEN)
Logan Thomas (@ DET)
Jordan Reed (@ NO)
Anthony Firkser (vs. IND)
Tyler Higbee (vs. SEA)
Jordan Akins (@ CLE)
Ross Dwelley (@ NO)
The Rams tight end situation is a bit tricky to project. Tyler Higbee took a backseat to Everett in Weeks 7-8 when he played through a hand injury. He should be closer to 100% after the bye, and this is a tight end by committee situation to avoid.
Tier 6
Irv Smith Jr. (@ CHI)
Greg Olsen (@ LAR)
Mo Alie-Cox (@ TEN)
Drew Sample (@ PIT)
Tyler Eifert (@ GB)
Darren Fells (@ CLE)
Richard Rodgers (@ NYG)
KICKERS
Tier 1
Mason Crosby (vs. JAX)
Wil Lutz (vs. SF)
Tier 2
Zane Gonzalez (vs. BUF)
Kai Forbath (vs. SEA)
Cody Parkey (vs. HOU)
Jason Myers (@ LAR)
Ryan Succop (@ CAR)
Tyler Bass (@ ARI)
Chris Boswell (vs. CIN)
Matt Prater (vs. WAS)
Daniel Carlson (vs. DEN)
Tier 3
Justin Tucker (@ NE)
Stephen Gostkowski (vs. IND)
Jason Sanders (vs. LAC)
Ka'imi Fairbairn (@ CLE)
Rodrigo Blankenship (@ TEN)
Jake Elliott (@ NYG)
Michael Badgley (@ MIA)
Tier 4
Dustin Hopkins (@ DET)
Robbie Gould (@ NO)
Brandon McManus (@ LV)
Dan Bailey (@ CHI)
Joey Slye (vs. TB)
Tier 5
Cairo Santos (vs. MIN)
Randy Bullock (@ PIT)
Graham Gano (vs. PHI)
Nick Folk (vs. BAL)
Josh Lambo (@ GB)
DEFENSES
Tier 1
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ NYG)
Green Bay Packers (vs. JAX)
Baltimore Ravens (@ NE)
Tier 2
New Orleans Saints (vs. SF)
Minnesota Vikings (@ CHI)
Detroit Lions (vs. WAS)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ CAR)
Tier 3
New York Giants (vs. PHI)
Miami Dolphins (vs. LAC)
Washington Football Team (@ DET)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ MIA)
Chicago Bears (vs. MIN)
Tennessee Titans (vs. IND)
Tier 4
Arizona Cardinals (vs. BUF)
Cleveland Browns (vs. HOU)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)
New England Patriots (vs. BAL)
Buffalo Bills (@ ARI)
Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)
Tier 5
Seattle Seahawks (@ LAR)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ PIT)
Houston Texans (@ CLE)
Carolina Panthers (vs. TB)
Denver Broncos (@ LV)
San Francisco 49ers (@ NO)
Tier 6
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ GB)
