Thursday Night Football features two contenders in the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars, but the contest may not live up to the billing with Trevor Lawrence not at 100%. While I expect him to play, the flow of the game could be affected greatly.
Through six contests, the Saints have yet to play a game that's gone over the posted game total. I don't expect TNF to be a high-scoring affair either, but in a week where six teams are on bye, players may be forced into fantasy lineups regardless of matchup. As always, this column will assist you in making the best decisions possible for your team with the incomplete information we have on hand regarding the full Sunday slate.
The Saints see the total of their games lined at 40.7 points on average, which is the second lowest in the league. Their defense has carried them thus far; New Orleans is seventh in defensive DVOA and fourth in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville isn’t far behind, ranking eighth in total defensive DVOA with a schedule rank of four, meaning only three teams have played a tougher slate of offenses.
Even with the projection of a lower scoring game, I don't see a path to benching many of the key fantasy players involved. Travis Etienne is an elite RB1, ranking top five in all formats. His counterpart, Alvin Kamara, is getting it done with sheer volume. Despite averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and without a single explosive run, no fantasy team can afford to neglect a running back with this type of usage, especially in the receiving department.
At wide receiver, Chris Olave remains a must-start every week. The Jaguars surrender 8.6 yards per target to the position, ranking 21st. As for Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, both are strong WR2 plays, despite one being much more consistent than the other.
If Lawrence is limited in his movement, I expect Kirk to be the benefactor in regards to how many short targets he receives. Ridley is a more volatile play, but in a week with plenty of roster turmoil, starting a wideout who has garnered at least seven targets in every game is rather straightforward.
Let’s dive into the rest of the skill-position players you may be debating for Jaguars vs. Saints.
Jaguars Week 7 Start / Sit
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence ranks outside the top 12 quarterbacks in all formats and carries a questionable tag into this game. On a short week, against a top-10 defense, the Jaguars will have to lean heavily on their rushing attack.
The improvement of the Jacksonville defense has translated to Etienne leading the NFL in carries through six weeks. I don’t expect the gameplan to change much on Thursday or moving forward. The balance of the Jaguars offense is a cause for concern when it comes to the fantasy ceiling of Lawrence.
If you have the ability to pivot from Lawrence to a streaming quarterback, that is my recommended route. Jordan Love with a full set of weaponry against the 32nd-ranked Broncos pass defense is a widely available option. The likes of Matthew Stafford, Sam Howell and Geno Smith would be a clearly preferred option as well.
Evan Engram
Engram has been painfully consistent this season. He ranks inside the top 10 at the position in fantasy, without a single game with fewer than four receptions. He has yet to find the end zone this season, which makes it hard to get excited about his prospects in a tough matchup — the Saints allow only 5.5 yards per target to the position (sixth best).
It's unlikely Engram is the second-best option on any fantasy team given where he was drafted. Outside of situations in which Sam LaPorta was your late-round TE pick, Engram remains an every week fantasy starter.
Saints Week 7 Start / Sit
Derek Carr
Quarterbacks have had success racking up yardage against the Jaguars secondary, so it’s not out of the question Carr could generate solid numbers if you are forced to stream him. He is coming off his best performance of the season, which should quiet some concerns about his health.
However, Carr has struggled tremendously in the red zone — specifically, inside the 10-yard line. According to Sharp Football, Carr completed a league-low 34.5% of passes inside the 10 in 2022. In 2023, he has only completed 3-of-10 such throws, ranking him near the very bottom of the QB list, with only Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett faring worse.
In 2-QB and superflex leagues, Carr is a fine play as your second option. In 1-QB formats, I would still opt for about 15 other signal-callers. If truly desperate, play Carr over the likes of Desmond Ridder and Gardner Minshew.
Michael Thomas
Thomas has finished every game with 4-to-7 receptions and 45-to-65 yards. Without a touchdown, Thomas is quickly becoming a low-ceiling WR3 in full-PPR leagues. His 10.9 average depth of target is not conducive to creating big plays, and his overall lack of explosiveness means it’s unlikely for him to hit paydirt outside of the red zone.
Considering Thomas is paired up with one of the worst red-zone quarterbacks in recent years, you’ll need quite a bit of luck for a spike week.
I have him ranked outside of my top 30 wide receivers for the week, but I understand there are situations where you should happily accept 9-13 PPR points.
Rashid Shaheed
I am optimistic about Shaheed’s outlook moving forward. On the season, Shaheed has 23.4% of the team’s air yardage share. That is quite impressive when you consider he has only played 40 snaps or more in half of the games this season.
In Week 4, the explosive playmaker received a season-high seven targets, and last week he was given another eight opportunities (targets + carries). It's no surprise he wasn't heavily used in the Saints' shutout of the Patriots, so I am willing to give him a pass for Week 5.
Shaheed’s average depth of target (16.9) is the highest in the NFL for all WRs who have run 175 routes. With his speed and playmaking ability, New Orleans' coaching staff has no choice but to design plays that get him the ball. We are starting to see him become the most explosive option for a team that desperately needs help in creating chunk plays.
Shaheed is a good flex option this week, and better in half-PPR than full-PPR. With that said, in a fantasy week like this where points should be at a premium, Shaheed’s spike-week potential is enough to break many of the virtual ties in ranking WR3s and flex players.
He is the type of player I want to get in my lineup because all it takes is a few big plays to make a difference.
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