Fantasy Start vs. Sit: Jets-Colts
Michael Carter, RB, Jets
We can trust Carter as a mid-range RB2 despite the tough matchup.
The Colts rank first in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run and have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs, but Carter's value comes from his receiving usage, and Mike White has been a checkdown king. (Maybe he’s been spending too much time with Joe Flacco?)
Carter may struggle with efficiency on his 11-13 rush attempts, but I’m also projecting him for 4-5 receptions, which raises his value into the mid-RB2 range.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets
The only Jets receiver we can trust is Crowder, who is a high-floor WR3 option against the Colts' pass-funnel defense.
Assuming Corey Davis misses his second straight game, it's a crapshoot behind Crowder. Denzel Mims, Keelan Cole and Elijah Moore are very tricky to project right now because the Jets are rotating all three heavily, only to fight over scraps left behind by Crowder and the running backs.
Zach Pascal, WR, Colts
Mo-Alie Cox, TE, Colts
Pascal and Cox offer upside for underdogs who are desperate at WR and TE this week — both could benefit if the Jets focus extra resources on trying to slow down Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, especially in the red zone.
The Colts have the third-highest implied team total this week (28.5), which elevates touchdown odds for Pascal and Cox. I have Pascal ranked as a mid-range WR4 and Cox as a mid-range TE2 as a result.
If I'm a huge underdog in any matchup, I like the idea of playing them on Thursday Night Football. If one of them goes off, I could make my Sunday and Monday sit/start decisions more straightforward. And if they post a "dud," I'll at least know I need to be even more aggressive later in the week.
