Panthers vs Bears on Thursday Night Football may not be the most riveting matchup, but the fantasy football implications count all the same.
With three combined wins between the Panthers and Bears, we shouldn’t expect offensive fireworks. The total for this game sits below 40, and it features the 31st- and 26th-ranked offenses, respectively, according to DVOA.
The Panthers are 31st in yards per play on offense, averaging an abysmal 4.4 yards per passing play this season. Bryce Young is going through the rookie struggles we often see from quarterbacks who are transitioning to the NFL from elite college programs.
Oddly enough, Young's performance mirrors that of Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. Both signal-callers have a passer rating below 50.0 when faced with pressure, both have less than a 2% big-time throw percentage (according to Pro Football Focus) and their average depth of target — 6.2 for Young and 5.9 for Bagent — are the two lowest marks of all quarterbacks with at least 500 passing yards. Neither of them should be in consideration for a start in 1-QB formats and are only desperation plays in superflex leagues.
Out of all the primetime games in 2023, this may be the only one in which there are fewer than three players locked into your starting lineup between both teams.
Adam Thielen and DJ Moore, who both rank as WR1s halfway through the season, remain must starts in all formats where three WRs and a flex are required. Thielen averages 7.7 receptions on 9.5 targets per game. The overall inefficiency of the Panthers’ passing attack has led to an abundance of volume for the 33-year-old. DJ Chark’s health has been an issue, and there doesn’t seem to be much competition for Thielen.
Moore has failed to reach double digits in half-PPR formats in four consecutive games — still, he is clearly the best fantasy asset on the Bears. You may not feel too confident in Moore with Bagent under center, but the receiver's 24% target share is simply too high to rank him outside the top 25 at the position. Carolina is 20th in points per game allowed to opposing WR1s — this is not the time to bench Moore.
As always, this column will try to assist you as a fantasy manager in making the best decisions possible for your lineup with the current information at hand. Let’s dive into the rest of the skill players below in my Panthers vs Bears fantasy start/sit analysis.
Panthers Week 10 Start/Sit
Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard has handled 67% of Carolina's backfield work over the last two games despite the return of Miles Sanders.
During the three games in which Hubbard was the featured back, he’s averaged 3.48 yards per carry on 50 attempts. He has played well enough to hold off Sanders from retaking the starting role, but not so well that he has distanced himself from the competition.
The Panthers' offensive line is 23rd in adjusted line yards; now, they have to face the best rush defense in the league in terms of yards per carry allowed (3.23). The Bears' front has stuffed 23% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fifth-best mark in the league. Chicago's defense has been more vulnerable through the air, and that includes running backs out of the backfield.
It was encouraging to see Hubbard get six targets last week, but it is hard to feel confident in his receiving role when he totaled only three targets combined the prior two games.
Hubbard is a volume-based, low-end RB2 this week. The matchup is difficult, the Panthers are underdogs, and on a short week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sanders play more than 19 snaps.
If Hubbard is in consideration for your flex position, opt for a WR3/flex-type pass-catcher, especially in full-PPR formats.
Bears Week 10 Start/Sit
Bears running backs
The window of return for Khalil Herbert has been opened, and since he practiced in full this week, it is fair to expect his activation. Corresponding roster moves also signify his return on Thursday night, so it is best to plan for all scenarios.
If Herbert does play, I expect him to be the starter. According to PFF, Herbert boasted a top-10 rushing grade before his injury, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. He is Chicago's best all-around back, and it’s doubtful he would be activated if he wasn't going to be a significant part of the gameplan.
D’Onta Foreman, who filled in admirably for Herbert, has likely earned his way into the rotation. Foreman was not active from Weeks 2-5, but going forward, I expect Darrynton Evans to be the odd man out. Roschon Johnson will continue to mix in for around 20 snaps per game.
It’s impossible to know how the backfield split will shake out, but Foreman’s fantasy starter status takes a major hit if Herbert is activated. Foreman had 20 carries on 40 snaps last week in comparison to Johnson’s three touches on 20 snaps, so it is reasonable to expect Foreman to be the RB2. I expect a fairly even early down split between Foreman and Herbert, which makes it tough to trust either of them as more than desperation flex dart throws.
It will be extremely important to check the injury reports pregame. If Herbert isn't activated, Foreman has RB2 value against a defense that is last in the league in rush defense DVOA.
Editor's Note: Herbert is not expected to play, according to Tom Pelissero.
Cole Kmet
With Travis Kelce on bye and Dallas Goedert injured, Kmet ranks as a top-10 tight end.
He is wildly inconsistent, but over the last two games, the rapport between Kmet and Bagent has been apparent. Kmet has earned 18 targets, catching 16 of them, with two touchdowns. In fact, Kmet has 12 touchdowns over his last 19 games.
Kmet has a knack for spike weeks, and at the most inept position in fantasy football, he is quickly becoming a must start. According to Sharp Football, Kmet has a 32.3% target share in the red zone this season, which is second amongst all tight ends. His six end-zone targets also place him within the top three at the position.
I’d play Kmet over both George Kittle and Trey McBride. There is a case to be made to play him over Evan Engram as well, depending on if you are looking for a higher floor or a higher ceiling. I tend to play fantasy football with upside in mind, thus I would lean Kmet in this scenario as well.
Get used to having the Bears tight end in your lineup on weekly basis.
