Pat Freiermuth Draft Profile
Pat Freiermuth Draft Props
While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts — created by experts with established records of success — collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
In not one of the recently surveyed mocks has Freiermuth gone in Round 1. In fact, even though he was something of a preseason mock draft darling, his draft stock has steadily declined since last year. (per Grinding the Mocks).
Freiermuth has a good chance to go in Round 2, but I would be surprised to see him in Round 1.
At DraftKings, the over/under for tight ends selected in Round 1 is 1.5.
- Over 1.5: +325
- Under 1.5: -455
Generation talent Kyle Pitts is a lock for Round 1 — his draft position over/under is 5.5 at most sportsbooks — so we will definitely see one tight end on Day 1, but after Pitts I'm skeptical.
At -455, the implied probability of fewer than 1.5 tight ends going in Round 1 is 82%, but I think the true odds are closer to 95%. Over the past 20 years, just 22 tight ends have been selected in Round 1 — and Freiermuth simply does not have the hype to land in the top 32.
I already bet the under on this prop at -335, but I'm hitting it again at this price.
If you're feeling adventurous, you can bet on Freiermuth at +3500 at BetMGM to be the No. 1 tight end drafted in the class, but better ways exist to waste money.
Pick: Under 1.5 tight ends in Round 1 (bet to -800); 2.0 units
Bet Now:DraftKings
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Freiermuth is your favorite football player's favorite football player. He's an old-school tight end who seems to relish the opportunity to drive defenders to the ground as a blocker, and as a receiver he has enough route-running moxie and yards-after-catch grittiness to overcome his #DadRunner speed.
If George Kittle suddenly aged 10 years but still tried to play like a young guy — that would be Freiermuth. And I say that with all respect.
"I'm not going to try to hurdle a guy", "I'm gonna try to run someone over"
Pat Freiermuth is going to be electric in the NFL pic.twitter.com/bX4DjL11ME
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 8, 2021
Freiermuth was an older four-star recruit when he enrolled at Penn State, but he broke out right away as a true freshman, ranking No. 2 on the team with 26 receptions and 368 yards receiving and No. 1 with eight touchdowns receiving in 13 games.
As a sophomore, he was again the No. 2 pass catcher on the team, easily outperforming every Nittany Lion except wide receiver K.J. Hamler with 43-507-7 receiving in 13 games.
And then as a junior — with Hamler in the NFL — Freiermuth dominated aerial usage in the Penn State offense with 23-310-1 receiving in four games. Granted, his season was cut short by a shoulder injury, but in the four games he played Freiermuth had a 27.8% target share (per Pro Football Focus).
On top of that, as a junior Freiermuth displayed the ability to be more than just a traditional inline tight end, lining up in the slot or out wide on the majority of his snaps for the first time in his career (per SIS, 2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook).
Split Out Rate
- 2018: 34%
- 2019: 34%
- 2020: 54%
It's wrong to compare Freiermuth to Pitts, who is unlike any tight end prospect we've seen over the past two decades, but in their two final seasons, Freiermuth was comparable as a receiver to Cole Kmet, the No. 1 tight end in last year's class (per SIS).
Yards per Route
- Pat Freiermuth (2019-20): 1.7 & 1.4
- Cole Kmet (2018-19): 1.6 & 1.8
Yards per Target
- Pat Freiermuth (2019-20): 8.3 & 8.2
- Cole Kmet (2018-19): 8.5 & 8.4
As a prospect, Kmet has the receiving edge over Freiermuth — but just barely.
Still recovering from his season-ending shoulder surgery, Freiermuth did not participate in the Penn State pro day (except for the weigh-in), but he is expected to be ready for the 2021 season, and his general lack of athleticism is already assumed, so I doubt the absence of a pre-draft workout will hurt him.
While he's not the dynamic move tight end the NFL has grown accustomed to over the past decade, Freiermuth still has the look of a future contributor thanks to his two-way ability to run block and catch passes inline and out of the slot.
With his all-around skill set, Freiermuth is likely the most well-rounded tight end in the class.
That won't necessarily translate to NFL success, especially as a receiver, but he's a strong bet to be a top-three tight end in the class and multi-year veteran in the league.
NFL Prospect Comp: Hunter Henry with more blocking ability but less draft capital and probably less athleticism
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
