We debuted Vegas-style fantasy football rankings prior to this NFL season.
We used season-long prop lines for each player to project fantasy points, using the wisdom-of-the-crowds approach embedded in betting markets to find players undervalued and overvalued by fantasy experts.
For example: if a receiver was listed at 6 catches, 60 yards and 0.5 TDs in the prop market, he'd be projected for 15 points in full PPR, and 9 points in standard formats.
We'll be doing the same on a game-by-game basis, using props from that week's games to create fantasy rankings. While you'll be starting most of the players listed anyway, these rankings can be a good way to find DFS value or make tough lineup decisions early in the season.
It's a fascinating week with so many scoring environments affected by wind, cold and snow.
Here's how things shook out for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers for Week 16 in all formats, with some notes below.
Note: Some Chargers player props are missing for Monday Night Football so those players are not listed.
Quarterback
- Gardner Minshew is QB12 as he starts in place of Jalen Hurts. If you need a Hurts replacement, our rankings like him as a fringe starter, ahead of many other streaming options.
- Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins are both top six options as they play indoors in Minnesota today.
- Many of the mid-tier quarterbacks playing in bad weather are outside starting range in our rankings — Derek Carr at QB21, Deshaun Watson at QB24, Kenny Pickettt at QB19.
Running Back
- Our rankings are higher on Saquon Barkley and Rhamondre Stevenson than ESPN's rankings.
- They're also much higher on Isaiah Pacheco and lower on Jerrick McKinnon.
- Our rankings don't like Kenneth Walker much, as he's a fringe RB2 according to the prop market and No. 14 in ESPN's rankings.
Wide Receiver
- Despite our rankings being higher than the market on Minshew, they're slightly down on Eagles receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.
- We're higher than the fantasy rankers on Tee Higgins.
- The prop market likes Darius Slayton, DJ Moore and Michael Pittman more than fantasy rankings.
Tight End
- Dallas Goedert is back at TE4 in PPR after missing the last month with a shoulder injury.
- Dawson Knox and Cole Kmet are both backend TE1s despite bad weather in Chicago.
- Mark Andrews has drifted far from his elite status, coming in as a mid-tier TE1.
