A few weeks ago, we debuted Vegas-style fantasy football rankings.
We used season-long prop lines for each player to project fantasy points, using the wisdom-of-the-crowds approach embedded in betting markets to find players undervalued and overvalued by fantasy experts.
For example: if a receiver was listed at 75 catches, 1,100 yards and 6.5 TDs in season-long props, he would be projected for 224 fantasy points in full PPR.
We'll be doing the same on a game-by-game basis, using props from that week's games to create fantasy rankings. While you'll be starting most of the players listed anyway, these rankings can be a good way to find DFS value or make tough FLEX decisions early in the season.
Here's how things shook out for Week 1, with some notes below.
Quarterback
- Lamar Jackson, not Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, is your No. 1 QB for Week 1 (and since Josh Allen already played). He's got a tasty matchup against the Jets and projects for big rushing totals, which raises his floor significantly.
- Trey Lance, a preseason industry favorite, is also in that top tier ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow, thanks to his rushing upside.
Running Back
- In all formats, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon all took pretty big hits. Harris, drafted as a top 5 running back, is all the way down at 13th among running backs in half PPR. Cook comes in at No. 8 in PPR formats.
- Leonard Fournette and Aaron Jones are two of the beneficiaries, moving into the top six in PPR.
Wide Receiver
- The biggest surprise is probably Tee Higgins at No. 6 in PPR formats. Teammate Ja'Marr Chase is still high at No. 4, but Higgins jumps many players that were being drafted over him, in Week 1.
- The betting market loves Christian Kirk, too. He's all the way up at No. 21 in PPR despite going off the board more than 10 picks later.
Tight End
- Things look pretty normal at tight end, with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts going off at 1-2-3.
- The biggest surprise is David Njoku at No. 8 in PPR formats, as he was drafted around the top-15 before the season.
