Rondale Moore Draft Profile
Rondale Moore Draft Props
I am the world's No. 1 Rondale Moore truther. If I were an NFL general manager with the opportunity to choose between Ja'Marr Chase and Moore … I would select Chase as the top receiver in the draft, but then I'd secretly curse myself for my unadulterated cowardice.
In my most recent mock draft, I do not have Moore going in Round 1.
Even so, I have a position on him at +10000 to be the No. 1 wide receiver selected in the draft.
Over the past half decade, the NFL has valued speedy receivers in the draft, and Moore has a real chance to be the fastest receiver in the class.
As a legit 4-star recruit, Rondale Moore was the No. 1 WR in his class with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash & 133.6 SPARQ Rating.
With years of training since then, he might be faster & more athletic now. (3/15)
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) February 27, 2021
The guy is an absolute athletic marvel. His body is like something out of a superhero movie.
Yes, he's short. 5'9" at the tallest. Maybe closer to 5'8" — but how many short guys do you know who can squat 600 pounds? (5/15)https://t.co/kFpuq8Bflf
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) February 27, 2021
Moore isn't big, but in the words of Moore himself, "How big is fast?"
On top of that, he was an elite producer in college.
As an 18-year-old true freshman at Purdue, he was 114-1,258-12 receiving and 21-213-2 rushing. No other receiver in the class has that strong of a breakout profile — not Ja'Marr Chase, not DeVonta Smith, not Jaylen Waddle, no one.
Moore is a longshot, but I expect him to tear up his pro day. And if Chase, Smith and Waddle underwhelm at their pro days, then Moore will be a live dog.
Rondale Moore: 100-1 to be the No. 1 WR selected in the 2021 NFL draft at DraftKings. 🚀🚀🚀
I'm invested. (15/15)https://t.co/BnoAA1vZE1
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) February 27, 2021
If you're eyeing this prop, you will likely get the most value if you bet it before the Purdue Pro Day on March 23. If Moore flashes his best-in-class athleticism at the event, his posted odds to be the No. 1 receiver in the draft will almost certainly drop, just as they did last year for Henry Ruggs after he blazed a 4.27-second 40 time at the combine.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
If not for Chase, Moore would be the No. 1 wide receiver in my way-too-early rookie dynasty rankings.
The numbers — the attributes — that tend to translate into NFL success Moore possesses in abundance.
He broke out at 18 years old, and he broke out as a true freshman. Breakout age and experience are incredibly predictive for receivers. That Moore produced at a high level in such a precocious and immediate fashion is a boon to his NFL projection.
He also exhibited a multidimensional skill set in college. In his 2018 breakout season, he did more than enough as a receiver in 13 games to warrant sustained excitement, but what he did as a runner and returner really distinguishes him.
- Rushing: 21-213-2 | 10.1 yards per carry
- Kick Returning: 33-662-0 | 20.1 yards per return
- Punt Returning: 12-82-0 | 6.8 yards per return
College receivers who regularly contribute as runners and returners have historically had outsized odds of NFL success relative to their draft position. As demonstrated by his rushing and returning prowess, Moore has the type of get-the-ball-in-his-hands-in-whatever-way-possible playmaking ability that translates to the next level.
As an early declarant who won't turn 21 until after April's draft, Moore could have 10-plus years ahead of him in the NFL. And as a prospect highly unlikely to fall outside of the top 100, he should have sufficient draft capital invested in him to ensure that he gets opportunities early in his career.
Although Moore is short, he's stout and incredibly athletic. His physical profile is not an issue, especially since we've seen small-ish speedster have NFL success.
Because of various but fluky-ish injuries, Moore played just seven games in 2019-20. Even so, he put up 98.9 scrimmage yards per game in his two final seasons. The guy can produce.
It's fair to question his style of play: In his two final seasons of college, Moore was rarely targeted downfield.
Here's a heat map of Rondale Moore's targets over the last two seasons. It's almost exclusively within 10 yards of the LOS.
The Tavon Austin comparison is unavoidable. Hopefully he lands with a coach who knows what to do with that, unlike Austin's early career. pic.twitter.com/DfQAJ9n9H9
— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) March 3, 2021
In the NFL, few guys can survive only on targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. If all Moore can do is catch screens and slants, he will likely be a limited professional player, as we've seen with the somewhat comparable Tavon Austin.
Unlike Austin, though, Moore I suspect actually has the ability to catch the ball downfield. In his two final seasons, Moore was victimized by circumstances beyond his control, as head coach Jeff Brohm oversaw an uninspiring offense quarterbacked by the tolerable-at-best trio of Jack Plummer, Aidan O'Connell and Elijah Sindelar.
That Moore wasn't targeted beyond 10 yards in 2019-20 almost certainly says more about the offense and the quarterbacks than about him.
To my untrained eye, Moore has the elite short-area quickness and burst to run good routes. And when he actually was asked to run routes downfield in college, he did that with subtlety and success. And even with his size, I rarely saw him struggle to get off the line of scrimmage: He has the strength and more importantly the speed to be a well-rounded NFL receiver.
With his age, expected draft capital and breakout and physical profiles, Moore is easily one of the most complete and exciting receiver prospects to enter the league in the past five years.
I doubt he'll be selected with a top-six pick in most rookie fantasy drafts, and that makes him someone I will target wherever possible.
NFL Prospect Comp: Curtis Samuel with more receiving production and a better breakout history
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
