The Titans traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers will undoubtedly be a hard-fought matchup on Thursday Night Football, but do not expect a high-scoring affair. Both teams’ implied total sits below 20 points and the market has continued to push the Titans vs. Steelers over/under below the key number of 37.
The Steelers average 1.17 points per drive and have punted on 49.4% of possessions; they rank as one of the two worst offenses in both categories. In 2022, the Steelers had the fewest touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone, which has been the case again in 2023 as no team has struggled more to reach the red zone than Pittsburgh.
Oddly for an offense this inept, the Steelers have several skill-position players worth considering for your starting lineup. Both George Pickens and Diontae Johnson should be locked into your lineup in leagues that start three wide receivers. Against boundary wide receivers, the Titans have allowed a 75% catch rate (31st) and 9.5 yards per target (27th), according to Sharp Football.
Johnson has had a target share of 26.1% and 35% in two games since returning from injury. Despite not reaching the end zone in over 660 days, his usage is simply too good to leave on the bench in a plus matchup.
As for Pickens, he’s accounted for 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in 4-of-7 games this season. Seemingly more of a boom-or-bust-type play, his potential matchup with Kristian Fulton could translate to a spike game. Fulton ranks 90th out of 114 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF grade.
The Titans offense remains rather straightforward: Start Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins with confidence — just double-check the injury report on Hopkins, who's dealing with a toe injury, prior to the start of the game, but I’d be quite surprised if he isn't a full go.
Pittsburgh is 26th in yards per carry allowed to opposing runners. Henry’s workload offsets the concerns we have about his career-low explosive rush rate (7.5%). Hopkins clearly looked healthier in Week 8, and while we shouldn’t overreact to one performance from Will Levis, he appears to have unlocked Hopkins’ ability to win downfield.
With four teams on bye in Week 9, there are plenty of fringe fantasy options for managers to consider in Titans vs. Steelers. Let’s dive into the rest of the skill players on Thursday Night Football below.
Titans Week 9 Start/Sit
Will Levis
The narrative in regards to Levis, who had a truly incredible debut, has been put to bed after just one game — the idea of a 2-QB system for the Titans seems rather silly at this point. With the extreme turmoil at the quarterback position this season, Levis is obviously worth a waiver addition, and for some, he could even be an immediate fantasy starter.
The Steelers pass defense ranks ninth in DVOA, anchored by an adjusted sack rate of 9.1%, which is the sixth-highest in the league. Levis is a tempting ceiling play, but I am still recommending the safety of high-floor quarterbacks in much easier matchups.
Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield face defenses outside of the top 20 in pass defense DVOA. With an implied total of nearly 24 points, I’d also play Gardner Minshew over Levis.
Tyjae Spears
Spears, who's averaging 5.8 yards per carry, has the explosive ability to create chunk plays. The only thing holding him back from being a weekly starter in fantasy football is simply usage. He’s cleared 30 snaps played in four straight games but had double-digit opportunities (carries and targets) just once.
If you are truly desperate to find a viable flex, Spears should be on the field enough to catch 3-4 passes in a game in which the Titans are underdogs. With that said, this is going to be a low-scoring grind of a game, and the path to a negative kind of game script — something that would benefit Spears — is slim.
Opt for a WR4-type dart throw over Spears if you can.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo had an awful drop last week that kept his stat line in check. He has seen 19 targets over the last three weeks, but it is very difficult to pull the trigger on actually starting him given he's shown no signs of breaking out.
Considering the state of the tight end position, virtually any player getting opportunities should at least be addressed. Okonkwo has disappointed greatly given his draft status over the summer, producing only 145 yards through eight games.
This week in particular is especially thin at the position. Outside of top 12 options, you’ll happily take any player who could sniff double digits in full-PPR formats. I will opt for Tyler Higbee and Cade Otton over Okonkwo, but I would consider giving Okonkwo the nod over Tyler Conklin and Hunter Henry.
Steelers Week 9 Start/Sit
Kenny Pickett
Pickett has yet to deliver a single QB1 (top 12) scoring performance this season. However, the Titans represent the easiest matchup for him this year. Pickett's had to play against four of the top 10 pass defenses in the league thus far, according to DVOA.
But given his questionable health, low-scoring game conditions and the fact that the Titans defense ranks third in red-zone efficiency, Pickett is more than benchworthy.
For an offense that struggles to produce outside of the red zone, I can't bet on the Steelers to cash in on scoring opportunities against a defense that has shown the ability to tighten up when the field is condensed.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren
According to DVOA, the Titans have the No. 2 defense against the run. Outside of a complete outlier performance by Zack Moss in Week 5, they haven’t allowed any running back to reach 70 yards and have only surrendered two scores.
Between Harris and Warren, Harris has the higher explosive rush rate at 7.1% — Warren has only turned two of his 45 attempts into 15-yards-plus gains. The allure with Warren lied with his explosive ability and receiving work, but since Pittsburgh's bye week, Harris has bested Warren in targets (8 vs. 7) and receptions (8 vs. 5). Warren should not be in your starting lineup this week.
Harris at least represents a desperation flex I can get behind, as he had 14 carries in three straight games prior to last week. With a positive, or, at worst, neutral game script, Harris could hover around 13-15 carries and 3-4 receptions. That usage is enough to use in the flex this week — just know you likely will not feel overly satisfied unless he hits paydirt, something he has done only once this season.
