Trevor Lawrence Draft Profile
Trevor Lawrence Draft Props
Lawrence is as close of a lock as possible to be the No. 1 overall pick. That's where I have him going in my most recent mock draft.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a "wisdom of the crowds" approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts, created by experts with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
And in none of these drafts does anyone other than Lawrence go at the top of the board.
In January, I bet on Lawrence at -1200 to go No. 1.
In February, after Lawrence reportedly impressed at his pro day, I increased my exposure to the longhaired Adonis: I bet on Lawrence at -2000.
Barring a true Black Swan, Lawrence will be the No. 1 pick in April.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
What do I really need to say about Lawrence?
He was the No. 1 pocket passer among the 2018 recruits, he started almost right away at Clemson and as a 19-year-old true freshman. He led the Tigers to a 15-0 national championship season that featured an emphatic 44-16 win over then-undefeated Alabama in the title game.
In completion rate and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), Lawrence improved as a passer each year.
- 2018 (15 games): 65.2% completion rate | 9.3 AY/A
- 2019 (15 games): 65.8% completion rate | 9.9 AY/A
- 2020 (10 games): 69.2% completion rate | 10.2 AY/A
In his entire college career, Lawrence lost only two games.
It's theoretically easy to knock Lawrence because he's benefitted from playing with NFL-caliber players at Clemson — namely wide receivers Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers as well as running back Travis Etienne. But in reality, the high quality of his teammates is probably irrelevant as it pertains to a prediction of his NFL future.
While at Clemson and playing for head coach Dabo Swinney, quarterback and predecessor Deshaun Watson was similarly blessed — perhaps even more than Lawrence has been — with talented skill-position contributors.
- WRs: Mike Williams, Adam Humphries, Artavis Scott, Charone Peake, Deon Cain, Ray-Ray McCloud
- TE: Jordan Leggett
- RB: Wayne Gallman
Perhaps Watson's teammate-aided production at Clemson was a little inflated, but the talent he flashed in college certainly presaged his NFL greatness, and that's a great sign for Lawrence's professional potential: We know Clemson and Swinney can produce a high-end NFL quarterback.
Although Lawrence was not nearly the runner that Watson was in college, Lawrence's passing numbers more than stack up with Watson’s aerial production.
- Trevor Lawrence (40 games): 10,098-90-17 | 9.8 AY/A
- Deshaun Watson (38 games): 10,168-90-32 | 8.7 AY/A
Lawrence entered college as the top passer in his recruitment class, and he exits his undergraduate years as a national champion and one of the most anticipated draft prospects in NFL history.
Destined to be a Week 1 starter, Lawrence will likely be the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner when the season kicks off.
Assuming he goes No. 1 to the Jaguars, Lawrence's situation might be better than it appears. The Jags have promising wide receivers in D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault and a good pass-catching running back in James Robinson.
On top of that, the Doug Marrone coaching staff that has underwhelmed in Jacksonville for much of the past five years is gone, replaced by shiny new head coach Urban Meyer and veteran offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. The 2021 Jags might not be good, but they at least won't be the boringly-bad version of the team we've endured for the past half decade.
And maybe the Jags offense actually will be good. Given the extent to which quarterbacks have had success with Meyer in college (Alex Smith, Chris Leak, Tim Tebow, Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Dwayne Haskins) and Bevell in the NFL (Brett Favre, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford), there's a reasonable chance that Lawrence will be a semi-reliable fantasy option in even single-quarterback leagues as early as 2021.
And by his third season — with his arm talent, scheme recognition, pocket presence and under-appreciated rushing ability — Lawrence should be a low-end fantasy QB1 at the worst.
I never prioritize passers in single-quarterback dynasty leagues, but in my way-too-early rookie fantasy rankings, I have Lawrence as a late pick in Round 2. He'll likely go earlier than that in many rookie drafts, but that doesn't mean I dislike him. He looks like a future star.
NFL Prospect Comp: Justin Herbert with more draft capital and recruitment pedigree but less college experience
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
