We've put a bow on Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season and as head coach Bill Belichick would say, "We are on to Week 10." Now it's time to gaze into the crystal ball and see which players we should target on the waiver wire now for a big payoff later.
Reminder: The Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks and Buccaneers all have a Week 11 bye. You will need to find one-week replacements for Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Trevor Lawrence, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette and more.
Week 11 Early Waiver Wire Targets
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (48% rostered)
Garoppolo has yet to crest the 20-point mark in fantasy this season, though he has been remarkably consistent. From Week 5 through 7, he finished as the QB9 thrice. He was the QB14 in Week 8 against the Rams after completing 21-of-25 attempts for 235 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Garoppolo has at least 17 fantasy points in five of seven games this season and he will be a safe streaming option in Weeks 10 and 11 against the Chargers' and Cardinals' below-average pass defenses.
He offers even more upside with the addition of pass-catching running back Christian McCaffrey, who fits in well with Garoppolo’s affinity for short-yardage dumpoffs. He should be stream-worthy for any Tagovailoa, Geno or Brady managers next week.
QB Deshaun Watson, Browns (35%)
Well, folks. The time has come to start bracing yourself for Watson's return and debut for the Browns.
Watson will, in all likelihood, make his first NFL start since Week 17 of the 2020 season just after Thanksgiving on the road in Houston (Week 13). Backup Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable, but you can't really expect a $230 million player like Watson to ride the bench once his suspension is over.
I will preface this by saying that it is 100% okay to pass on Watson if you cannot stomach his legal troubles. He was the QB5 in 2018, QB2 in 2019 and QB6 in 2020 — all with limited depth on the Texans.
I expect him to put up at least top-12 numbers with the Browns, who have Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt leading their offensive depth chart. Watson is worth adding prior to Week 13 — especially if you are leaner at quarterback and in playoff contention.
WRs Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, Giants (36% and 6%)
The Giants did not make any moves for a receiver before the trade deadline. While this is bad news for Daniel Jones, it is relatively good news for New York’s existing pass-catchers.
Robinson was a popular add before the Giants’ bye as Kadarius Toney was shipped off to Kansas City. He was unfortunately a dud and caught 2-of-3 targets for 15 yards. Slayton had a slightly better day and caught 5-of-6 targets for 66 yards.
I wrote about both in my Week 10 waiver wire column, as I expect them to bounce back nicely against the Texans this week, which could make them harder to acquire later on. After the Texans, the G-Men face the Lions in Week 11 — their defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and rank 26th in pass DVOA.
WR DeAndre Carter, Chargers (27%)
With both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen sidelined, Carter was the Chargers' de facto WR2 last week behind Joshua Palmer. He had a solid day against the Falcons — in spite of an illness — and caught 5-of-6 targets for 54 yards, while Palmer reeled in 8-of-10 targets for 106 yards.
Williams is dealing with a high ankle sprain and will be sidelined for weeks; Allen, who has only played in two games this season, seems to have suffered a setback with his hamstring injury and has not practiced since Oct. 21.
In light of this, Palmer and Carter could continue to be the duo Justin Herbert is forced to lean on moving forward, which would be good news for their fantasy values. However, both could struggle this week against the 49ers, though their defense has been middle-of-the-road against the pass this year.
They get a much easier opponent in Week 11 at home versus the Chiefs, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and rank 24th in pass DVOA. Williams had a field day in Week 2 in Kansas City and caught 8-of-10 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. Carter and Palmer were also involved in that game, and should see even more targets next week if both Allen and Willams remain sidelined.
RB Jaylen Warren, Steelers (22%)
It may be time to officially hit the panic button on Najee Harris.
Harris was the RB4 in half-PPR scoring last year in his historic rookie season. He was subsequently drafted as a top-six running back this year but has fallen very short of those lofty expectations.
In fairness, there were warning signs about a potential sophomore slump. Harris dealt with a Lisfranc injury during training camp, which has lingered into the regular season. The 2021 Pro Bowler is the alpha in this backfield, though for how long seems very much up in the air. He out-snapped Warren 54 to 22 against the Eagles before the Steelers' Week 10 bye, but was out-gained 50 yards to 32.
Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reported this week that the Steelers will be getting Warren more touches and snaps coming out of the bye week. Warren has been the more effective one of the duo with 5.3 yards per attempt to Harris’ 3.3.
This is a developing situation that warrants a speculative add. At the minimum, Warren is a high-value insurance policy. More optimistically, this could develop into a 1A/1B situation in light of Harris' struggles.
RB Gus Edwards, Ravens (48%)
Edwards missed Week 9 against the Saints while dealing with a hamstring issue and ceded the backfield to Kenyan Drake. Drake manhandled the New Orleans run defense and logged 26 touches for 109 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the RB5.
Drake has had his moments this season, but I do believe that Edwards — when healthy — will be the Ravens' RB1. Edwards is expected to return after the team's Week 10 bye to face Carolina, then Jacksonville — both of which are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs this year. This could make Edwards a viable replacement for Etienne, Fournette, Walker, Mostert or Wilson managers in Week 11.
TE Cole Kmet, Bears (50%)
After a dreadful start to the year, Kmet has been on fire of late. He was the TE12 in Week 8 and TE1 in Week 9 and he has three touchdowns in two weeks, which I suppose atones for the two back-to-back goose eggs to start the year.
Kmet was the TE34 from Weeks 1 through 7, prompting many to shed him from their fantasy rosters. With the Bears offense finally showing major signs of life, however, he may be worth adding back with the Lions and Falcons on deck.
The Falcons rank 29th in pass DVOA and are allowing the eight-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. Kmet will be a viable streamer against Atlanta for any managers in need of Gesicki, Fant or Otton replacements.
